2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (updated w/ reactions)

Sayuri the dog for Oscar host, you absolute cowards.

Taking a break from the Best of the Decade countdown to share my predictions for tomorrow morning's Oscar nominations. Presented without commentary.

Picture

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Parasite
3. 1917
4. Joker
5. The Irishman
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Marriage Story
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Little Women

if there are 10...

10. The Two Popes

also in the running

Knives Out, The Farewell, Bombshell

-- 9/9. I can't think of a single time this has happened. But am I proud?

Director

1. Tarantino
2. Bong
3. Mendes
4. Phillips
5. Scorsese

also in the running

Waititi, Baumbach, Gerwig, Almodovar, Mangold

-- 5/5. I'm sorry if I somehow willed Todd Phillips into being nominated. I guess it's better than Waititi?

Actress

1. Zellweger
2. Theron
3. Johansson
4. Nyong'o
5. Ronan

also in the running

Erivo, Awkwafina, Woodard, de Armas

-- 4/5. I figured Lupita Nyong'o wasn't a sure thing, but I was starting to believe the hype for Awkwafina. Oh well. At least I didn't get my hopes up for Alfre Woodard.

Actor

1. Phoenix
2. Driver
3. Banderas
4. de Niro
5. Bale

also in the running

Egerton, Murphy, DiCaprio, Sandler, Pryce, Hauser

-- 3/5. Banderas is the Academy's biggest saving grace this year for me, at least in terms of the acting categories.

Supporting Actress

1. Dern
2. Lopez
3. Robbie
4. Pugh
5. Zhao

also in the running

Johansson, Bates, Bening, Kidman

-- 3/5. I knew Zhao Shuzen was a long shot, but no Jennifer Lopez? Bad show.

Supporting Actor

1. Pitt
2. Pacino
3. Pesci
4. Hanks
5. Song

also in the running

Alda, Hopkins, Foxx, Dafoe

-- 4/5. Honestly thought the acting branch would want a chance to reward Parasite somewhere. Much less inspired voting than last year. Remember what a great surprise Marina de Tavira was?

Original Screenplay

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

also in the running

Pain and Glory, Bombshell, Uncut Gems, Dolemite is My Name, Ford v Ferrari, Waves...and 1917...

-- 4/5. Nominating 1917 for writing is...a choice. When I was hoping for an interesting surprise (as this branch is known to do), I was thinking along the lines of Waves or Uncut Gems, not...1917. Wild.

Adapted Sreenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Little Women
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

also in the running

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hustlers, Just Mercy

-- 5/5. No surprises here.

Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. Frozen 2
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

also in the running

Klaus, Abominable, Weathering With You, Ne Zha

-- 4/5. Yay, Klaus!

Documentary

1. American Factory
2. Apollo 11
3. The Cave
4. For Sama
5. Honeyland

also in the running

One Child Nation, Maiden, Biggest Little Farm, Advocate, The Edge of Democracy, Midnight Family, Knock Down the House, The Apollo, The Great Hack

-- 4/5.

International Feature

1. Parasite
2. Beanpole
3. Pain and Glory
4. Corpus Christi
5. Atlantics

also in the running

Les Miserables, Honeyland, Those Who Remained, Truth or Justice, The Painted Bird

-- 3/5. Was really hoping Atlantics would pull through in a Dogtooth sort of way.

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Joker
5. The Irishman

also in the running

Parasite, The Lighthouse, Little Women, A Hidden Life

-- 4/5. Not a bad lineup at all.

Best Costume Design

1. Little Women
2. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
3. Dolemite is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Jojo Rabbit

also in the running

Aladdin, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, 1917... and Joker and The Irishman

-- 3/5. Ruth E. Carter was robbed.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. The Irishman

also in the running

Marriage Story, 1917, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit

-- 4/5. The nomination for Jojo Rabbit that I understand the least. How do you pass up Little Women?

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Bombshell
2. Judy
3. Joker
4. Rocketman
5. 1917

also in the running

Dolemite is My Name, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Maleficent, Downton Abbey, Little Women

-- 4/5.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Jojo Rabbit

also in the running

Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn, Star Wars, Avengers: Endgame, Pain and Glory

-- 3/5.

Best Original Song

1. "Spirit"
2. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"
3. "Into the Unknown"
4. "Glasgow"
5. "Stand Up"

also in the running

"I Can't Let You", "I'm Standing With You", "Speechless", "High Above the Water", "Daily Battles", "Catchy Song", "Soju One Glass", "Never Too Late", "Letter to My Godfather", "Da Bronx"

-- 3/5. Guess I gotta watch Breakthrough if I want 100% Oscar completism this year. God damn it, Diane Warren.

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Parasite

also in the running

Ad Astra, Joker, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Rocketman, Knives Out, Downton Abbey

-- 5/5. Yay, Parasite!

Best Sound Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
5. 1917

also in the running

The Irishman, Toy Story 4, Rocketman, Star Wars, Ad Astra

-- 4/5. Only predicting one nomination for Star Wars was a bit dim in hindsight. Also to everyone who kept telling me Avengers was gonna be a Best Picture nominee with multiple nominations: Haha!

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Joker
3. Rocketman
4. 1917
5. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

also in the running

Avengers, The Irishman, Star Wars, Apollo 11, Ad Astra, Toy Story 4

-- 4/5. Ad Astra is honestly a great choice.

Best Visual Effects

1. The Lion King
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. 1917
5. Alita: Battle Angel

also in the running

Gemini Man, The Irishman, Captain Marvel, Terminator, Cats

-- 4/5. Guess my gamble that this branch would be turned off by the de-aging work in The Irishman didn't pay off. Otherwise, this was easy to guess.

100 Best Films of the 2010s: #51-#75

#100-#76          #75-#51          #50-#26          #25-#1

Honorable Mentions

75. Eden (Hansen-Løve, 2014)

Lovely, humane EDM epic that beautifully accumulates a tough, deeply felt connection to its characters and music. The best dance/end credits sequence since Beau Travail.

74. The Homesman (Jones, 2014)

In terms of directors who created fresh angles on the neo-western genre, Tommy Lee Jones should be up there with the Coens and P.T. Anderson. Dense, slantwise, and bravely rough-at-the edges when it could easily aim for something less complicated.

73. How I Ended This Summer (Popogrebsky, 2010)

A chillier, and even more remote Lighthouse, where a panic-stricken, college-aged fuck-up is circled by his taciturn, easily frustrated superior. Acute and unusual sense of tension and rhythm. Dobrygin!

72. A Star is Born (Cooper, 2018)

Bradley Cooper gives a performance for the ages in an already impressive career as an actor, but an under-praised asset to the success of this version of A Star is Born is his ability behind the camera. Displays such a rich perception to the emotion of a given scene, allowing the film's peaks to play so persuasively. Also deploys the soundtrack to perfection.

71. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Heller, 2019)

Endearingly embodies the spirit of Fred Rogers while genuinely wrestling with the idea of his cultural and personal impact in the real world. Mature and artistically tricky in its approach to aloofness, anger, idioms, and human bonds. Hanks's final piano ballad still lingers.

100 Best Films of the 2010s: #76-#100

                                   

#100-#76          #75-#51          #50-#26          #25-#1

Honorable Mentions

An intro to this list. Plan to keep individual write-ups as brief as possible in order to keep up the pace.

100. The Wind Rises (Miyazaki, 2013)

Hayao Miyazaki's final masterpiece. The animation is as lovely as ever, but the film's mix of wistfulness and moral contemplation is an even trickier reward, especially for a swan song.

99. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Iñárritu, 2014)

I get why it's maligned by some. The Michael Keaton character serving as a stand-in for Iñárritu's own foolhardy, unfastened audacity with Lindsay Duncan as a surrogate for any critic that stands in his way is a valid reading. And yet, it is a bold feat. The one-shot visual conceit is technically awe-inspiring and yields some of the most arresting images in Emmanuel Lubezki's already stacked portfolio. Even more impressive to me is how the one-shot conceit never feels like an arbitrary choice executed simply to prove that Iñárritu can pull it off, instead existing in clever relation to the flow of the stage, the grandiosity of ego, and the immediacy of losing one's mind.

98. Begin Again (Carney, 2013)

Sure, John Carney's movies tend to follow the same formula, but who cares when the results are this sweet, joyous, and tuneful? However, the impeccable soundtrack and ensemble swiftly excuse any similarities to Once.

97. Spa Night (Ahn, 2016)

Manages to be incredibly sexy even when grounded in David's hesitant POV. Speaks to the confidence of Andrew Ahn (in his directorial debut) and to his ability to pack a ton of insights into a minimalist shape.

96. Fire at Sea (Rosi, 2016)

I don't watch as many documentaries as I'd like to (hence their scarcity on this list) and feel self-conscious in assessing their merits, so one moving past my own shortcomings and being among my favorites of the year should show you how special it is to me. Which is certainly the case for Gianfranco Rosi's harrowing documentary about the small Italian island of Lampedusa and the European migrant crisis.

100 Best Films of the 2010s: Honorable Mentions

Happy New Year!!!

As I look back on the movies that left the most distinct cinematic impact on me for this decade, I can't help but reflect on where I was personally throughout the past 10 years. I was 17 years old at the start of 2010 and was beginning to enter the second half of my junior year of high school. Needless to say to anyone who's lived through their late teens and early twenties, but the 2010s were in no way a stable time in my life. At the risk of belaboring the point, this decade, for me, has mostly been marked by growth and change (for better and for worse), but the one thing that has remained constant is my love for list-making. In fact, I made a Best of the Aughts list at the end of the last decade. Shockingly enough, that list does not hold up in the slightest. Some of the movies I put on that list I don't even like anymore and exposed some major recency bias on my part, with my top two titles being from the year 2009. So with that said, I do hope the list I'm about to share here continues to hold up in 2030, but I also know that time and perspective is bound to reshape my opinions and point-of-view on certain things. My estimation will probably grow or shrink on certain films as the years go on, especially with titles that are still fresh to me. Some movies that I'm about to list in the honorable mentions section could make a complete leap frog to the Top 10 of the decade in a few years time for all I know. Movies that I don't currently care for could just as easily do the same. The power of growing and, more importantly, rewatching can make anything possible. With that out of the way, think of this list as a time capsule for how I view these films now.

My plan is to begin with the Honorable Mentions and release my Top 100 in four parts. I should note that this list has been finalized before screening certain 2019 titles, so if you're missing Portrait of a Lady on Fire or Little Women or The Two Popes or The Irishman (screened subsequent to finalizing the list), then that's what's happening. It's also possible that I've seen it but don't think it deserves to be on the list.

One more note: I'm only including titles that had their world premieres this decade. Films that made their premiere in the 2000s but were released in the U.S. in the 2010s that I would have mentioned include: White Material, Fish Tank, Everyone Else, Our Beloved Month of August, Dogtooth, Secret Sunsine, Prodigal Sons, Mother (the Bong Joon-ho version), and A Prophet.

50th Nashville Film Festival: A Hidden Life, Atlantics, and Clemency

The Fall festival season is coming to a close, unlocking certain question marks surrounding the awards race and, more importantly, exposing the movie-going demographic to some exciting titles that are coming to general audiences in the near future. For its 50th anniversary, the Nashville Film Festival, typically running through April each year, was apart of the Fall festival circuit, with access to some of the year's most anticipated releases. I had the good fortune of attending the festival's semi-centennial, albeit only in sporadic doses. I missed out on major Oscar contenders like Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit, while some of the more under-the-radar indies like Burning Cane, Gay Chorus, Sequin in a Blue Room, and Standing Up, Falling Down played at inopportune times for my schedule. I will be catching up on each of those (and others) when I can, but now I would like to discuss the three films I was able to see at this year's festival: A Hidden Life, the latest from Terrence Malick, Atlantics, the directorial debut of Mati Diop, and Clemency, the buzz-filled Sundance vehicle for Alfre Woodard.

Oscar Viewing Diary - Class of 2018

Logging Each of the Oscar-nominated Films I've Seen by Year!

(2018)

Screened:
(will update as I screen more nominees)

Animal Behaviour - Amusing if overlong Animated Short nominee posits animals in the roles of humans in a group therapy session.

At Eternity's Gate - Julian Schnabel directed Willem Dafoe to his fourth nomination for this typically expressionistic portrait of Vincent van Gogh.

Avengers: Infinity War - The Marvel Cinematic Universe nabbed their annual Best Visual Effects nomination over Best Picture-nominated Black Panther.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - Netflix-backed Western anthology from the Coen Brothers received 3 well-earned nominations, including Best Adapted Screenplay for the directing duo.

BlacKkKlansman - Spike Lee's biggest Oscar play yet in his 30+ year career, receiving his first nomination as a director.

Black Panther - Marvel's Oscar success here is a momentous occasion outside of its genre roots, crafting a savvy, formally intelligent blockbuster that has genuine cultural relevance.

Black Sheep - Vivid documentary short about a black londoner recounting his personal experiences living in a racist neighborhood proceeding the murder of Damilola Taylor.

Bohemian Rhapsody - Controversial Freddie Mercury biopic plagued by production drama eventually became an unexpected awards magnet, particularly for its star, Rami Malek.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? - Marielle Heller's follow-up to Diary of a Teenage Girl scored acting nominations for on-screen besties Melissa McCarthy (2nd nomination!) and Richard E. Grant (1st nomination!).

Cold War - Pawel Pawlikowski is the only director nominated in this year's Best Director lineup whose film was not Best Picture nominated, a rarity in the expanded nominee era.

End Game - Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman, heroic documentarians behind Celluloid Closet and Times of Harvey Milk, return with this survey of medical professionals and patients coming to terms with end-of-life options.

Fauve - Canadian-produced short feature follows two rabble-rousing young boys as they trek through an open pit mine, leading to a grim outcome.

The Favourite - Yorgos Lanthimos has gradually become an Oscar household name, scoring his first Best Director nomination after success with Dogtooth  and The Lobster.

First Man - Damien Chazelle's dazzlingly constructed fourth feature was by no means the Oscar juggernaut its predecessor was, but had a respectable showing with four nominations.

First Reformed - At once a Best Actor contender for Ethan Hawke, Paul Schrader's writing was the only nomination for this patiently insinuating parable of personal, spiritual, and environmental mortality.

Free Solo - Documentary follows thrill-seeking rock climber Alex Honnold in his attempts to free solo climb the daunting El Capitan.

Green Book - Has managed to sustain its awards momentum ever since taking the top prize at Toronto, receiving five nominations despite criticisms of the film's perspective on race relations.

If Beale Street Could Talk - By far the best movie to receive a nomination in any category, Barry Jenkins' follow-up to Best Picture-winning Moonlight is an aching, rapturous adaptation of James Baldwin's novel.

Incredibles 2 - Much-awaited sequel to the 2004 Pixar hit scored yet another Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination for the company.

Isle of Dogs - Wes Anderson makes a successful return to stop-motion animation nine years after Fantastic Mr. Fox, scoring well-deserved nominations for Animation and Score.

Late Afternoon -Breathtakingly lovely hand-drawn animation and surprising emotional undertow earmark this short feature about an elderly woman cycling through her memories.

Mary Poppins Returns - One had hoped this would be the year where Emily Blunt scored her first acting nomination, but the film was successful in other areas, reaping four nominations.

Mary Queen of Scots - In a refreshing change of pace, Queen Anne managed to spark more enthusiasm than Queen Elizabeth did this season, though the Costume and Makeup branches were seemingly impressed.

A Night at the Garden - Tours a haunting seven minutes of the 1939 American Nazi rally that drew nearly 20,000 spectators and eerily reflects modern-day Trump rallies.

One Small Step - Sweet, warm, dialogue-free Animated Short nominee about a Chinese-American father and daughter, the latter of whom aspires to work for NASA.

Period. End of Sentence. - Women in a small rural community in India advocate for and manufacture high quality sanitary pads, despite the stigma around menstruation.

A Quiet Place - Another would-be nomination for Emily Blunt, John Krasinski's foray into horror managed only a single nomination for Sound Editing.

RBG - Modest but inspiring account of the life and career of Ruth Bader Ginsburg is considered the front runner in this year's Best Documentary Feature category.

Ready Player One - Steven Spielberg's kinetic explosion of gaming and studio property was quite the CGI showcase and resulted in a nomination for Best Visual Effects.

Roma - Alfonso Cuarón is nominated as a director, writer, producer, and cinematographer for this semi-autobiographical snapshot of a specific time and place.

Shoplifters - Hirokazu Koreeda's Palme d'Or winning depiction of a makeshift family is a precisely calibrated and impeccably acted masterpiece.

Solo: A Star Wars Story - The second standalone entry into the Star Wars universe failed to excite critics and audiences, but still managed a nomination for Visual Effects.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - Technically awe-inspiring, universally beloved Spidey toon broke ground with its innovative use of animation, resulting in a Best Animated Feature nomination.

A Star is Born - Bradley Cooper is as acute, complex, and impactful behind the camera as he is in front, directing himself and Lady Gaga to acting nominations.

Vice - Adam McKay returns with more brazen political commentary after The Big Short, scoring his second nomination as a director for this Dick Cheney biopic.

Weekends - Structured on a series of repetitions and contains no dialogue, much like One Small Step, centering on a young boy with divorced, somewhat neglectful parents (unlike One Small Step).

The Wife - Glenn Close received her seventh nomination in this slow-burn marital profile/character study and could potentially nab her first win.

Have Yet to See:


Bao -
Border -
Capernaum -
Detainment -
Hale County This Morning, This Evening -
Lifeboat -
Madre -
Marguerite -
Minding the Gap -
Mirai -
Never Look Away -
Of Fathers and Sons -
Ralph Breaks the Internet -

Skin -

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Months of speculation, controversy, and online debate have led to this moment...my return to the blog! Just kidding, it's the Oscar nominations! As I usually do, I thought I would share my predictions and work through my own thoughts on the awards race so far and the impending nominations.

I will try not to despair so much over many of the questionable choices AMPAS will make on nomination morning, since there's always the chance that I will be pleased with the individual lineups. But I would like to point out that our the ways in which we engage these movies and responses to them play an important role in their fate as cultural touchstones. If I happen to find Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to be pedestrian and simplistic in how they handle issues of race and sexuality (each applying to both films) and you happen to enjoy them, then your first reaction doesn't have to be indignation. It's not that I personally find people who like this movie to be racist or homophobic. I just wonder why these are always the only types of racial or queer stories that are ever accepted into the cultural consciousness. If you do like these movies, then that might be an important question to ask yourself.

So, with that being said, let's look at my probably wrong and misguided predictions:

Best Picture

1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Crazy Rich Asians
9. Vice

if there are 10...
10. First Man

On the cusp: First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, Leave No Trace

Also in the running: Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Cold War, Widows

Outside shots: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, The Rider, Boy Erased, You Were Never Really Here, We the Animals

-- Not predicting Bohemian Rhapsody, despite its durable, if bewildering, precursor support. I do think it's an egregious movie, although that hasn't stopped me from predicting them before. My own feelings aside, it just strikes me as a populist choice that garners industry attention within various guilds, but ends up with little-to-no support from the Academy. Is it the kind of movie that will receive enough #1 votes to get nominated? You could make the same argument against Crazy Rich Asians chances, which showed up in the same places as Bohemian Rhapsody (Golden Globes, PGA, SAG), but isn't regarded as much of a threat for a nomination. The only difference is that people actually like Crazy Rich Asians and it doesn't whitewash what it pertains to be about (looking at you, too, Green Book). I'd say everything else is pretty safe, aside from If Beale Street Could Talk, which is the best movie of the year so of course it has the best chance of missing.

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
2. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
4. Ryan Coogler - Black Panther
5. Debra Granik - Leave No Trace

On the cusp: Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite, Peter Farrely - Green Book, Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk

Also in the running: Adam McKay - Vice, Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War, Damien Chazelle - First Man, Paul Schrader - First Reformed, John Krasinski - A Quiet Place

Outside shots: Steve McQueen - Widows, Chloe Zhao - The Rider, Lynne Ramsay - You Were Never Really Here, Rob Marshall - Mary Poppins Returns

-- Among any of the potential "surprise" nominees, Debra Granik's name being called would get the biggest hurrah from me. First, because it would be a great win for Team Campion, and second, because her work in Leave No Trace is the kind of direction I'd like to see rewarded more frequently. Soulful yet tough-minded command in its accumulative emotional impact and subtle coaxing of its communities and POVs. It'll probably be Peter Farrely, but if voters watched their Leave No Trace screeners at the right time, then I'm willing to believe it will stick with enough of them to make this happen.

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close - The Wife
2. Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman - The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns

On the cusp: Toni Collette - Hereditary, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio - Roma, Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade, Julia Roberts - Ben is Back

Also in the running: Viola Davis - Widows, Regina Hall - Support the Girls, Rosamund Pike - A Private War, Carey Mulligan - Wildlife

Outside Shots: Amandla Stenberg - The Hate U Give, Charlize Theron - Tully, Kathryn Hahn - Private Life, Constance Wu - Crazy Rich Asians

-- I fear it isn't going to happen for Emily Blunt. Though she wouldn't be my first choice for a nomination, I would be thrilled to see Blunt finally rewarded all these years after The Devil Wears Prada, which should have been her first Oscar nomination. The film's charms do fade the further you get from it, so it would not surprise me to see it get less support than it needs for a nomination outside of the technical categories. I'm still predicting her, but am keeping an eye out for people like Collette or Kidman who leave a more potent impact.

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
2. Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
3. Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
4. Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
5. John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman

On the cusp: Christian Bale - Vice, Ben Foster - Leave No Trace

Also in the running: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling - First Man

Outside shots: Joaquin Phoenix - You Were Never Really Here, John Cho - Searching, Robert Redford - The Old Man and the Gun, John C. Reilly - Stan & Ollie, Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased

-- The BFCA and Globe wins probably make my decision to exclude Bale in my predictions seem like a lapse in good judgment, but this does seem like one of those years where a supposed lock is shockingly left out on nomination morning. Bale in Vice has been a foregone conclusion for so long while people like Hawke, Malek, and Washington keep inspiring passionate fans to vote for them.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams - Vice
3. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
4. Emma Stone - The Favourite
5. Claire Foy - First Man

On the cusp: Thomasin McKenzie - Leave No Trace, Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased, Michelle Yeoh - Crazy Rich Asians, Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots

Also in the running: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place, Elizabeth Debicki - Widows, Danai Gurira - Black Panther

Outside shots: Linda Cardellini - Green Book, Cynthia Erivo - Widows, Tilda Swinton - Suspiria

-- I feel pretty confident about King's chances at this point, mostly because none of the other contenders have cemented themselves as a serious front runner the same . Adams will get in for being perfectly fine in a movie that doesn't ask her to dig as deeply as she does in her best nominated performances. Stone and Weisz will ride their category fraud campaign to easy nominations on the coattails of The Favourite's Best Picture and Best Actress momentum. I'm still predicting Foy for the last slot, even though First Man failed to catch on leading up to the nominations. I could see any of the four actresses outside of the predicted five (McKenzie, Kidman, Yeoh, Robbie) making it over her, but Foy benefits from playing a role they love (Concerned, Supportive Wife) and, more importantly, for supporting the emotional core of the movie in a role that they love. Whether First Man is completely dead as an Oscar contender is debatable (I still think it could happen), but I would not underestimate Foy.