Semi-Blind Stab at 2020-2021 Oscar Nom Predix

Minari is easily the highlight of this year's Oscar contenders.

What is there to say about this year's awards race? For my part, I have very little to say as I haven't been following it as closely as I have been for the last 15 years. I've seen less than 50 movies that are eligible for this year's Oscar nominations, and this is likely to be the first year in a long time that I haven't watched all of the nominees from the above-the-line categories. I'm obviously going to watch the nomination announcement tomorrow as I do every year, and I'm going to catch up with the nominees eventually. But let's just say I'm a hair less obsessive about it this year. Blame it on the pandemic or personal life or my immersion in pre-2020 cinema. Either way, I'm not nearly as informed as I normally would be. 

That being said, I can't let my tradition of predicting the nominees die just because of my own shortcomings. So, as someone who has watched far fewer of the contenders than most compiling their predictions, here's how I could see the nominees going:

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mank
4. One Night in Miami
5. Promising Young Woman
6. Minari
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. The Father
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
   
   if there are 10...
   
   
10. Da 5 Bloods

        also in the running...

Palm Springs, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Soul, News of the World, Sound of Metal, Another Round

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao
2. David Fincher
3. Emerald Fennell
4. Lee Isaac Chung
5. Regina King

        also in the running...

Aaron Sorkin, Shaka King, Spike Lee, Florian Zeller, George C. Wolfe, Thomas Vinterburg, Kelly Reichardt

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Mank
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Palm Springs

        also in the running...

Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, Soul, Sound of Metal

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. One Night in Miami
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

        also in the running...

I'm Thinking of Ending Things, The Mauritanian, News of the World, Emma., The Personal History of David Copperfield, First Cow, French Exit.... and The White Tiger

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan
2. Frances McDormand
3. Viola Davis
4. Andra Day
5. Vanessa Kirby

        also in the running...

Sophia Loren, Michelle Pfeiffer, Amy Adams, Rosamund Pike, Zendaya

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman
2. Anthony Hopkins
3. Riz Ahmed
4. Gary Oldman
5. Mads Mikkelsen (No Guts, No Glory!)

        also in the running...

Delroy Lindo, Steven Yeun, Tahar Rahim, Ben Affleck, Tom Hanks

Best Supporting Actress

1. Glenn Close
2. Maria Bakalova
3. Olivia Colman
4. Amanda Seyfried
5. Youn Yuh-jung

        also in the running...

Helena Zengel, Ellen Burstyn, Jodie Foster, Candice Bergen

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya
2. Leslie Odom Jr.
3. Sacha Baron Cohen
4. Chadwick Boseman
5. Charles Dance

        also in the running...

Paul Raci, Jared Leto, Bill Murray.... and Lakeith Stanfield

Best Cinematography

1. Mank
2. Tenet
3. Nomadland
4. Minari
5. The Midnight Sky

        also in the running...

News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah, First Cow, The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Best Film Editing

1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. Mank
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. News of the World

        also in the running...

One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Tenet.... and Promising Young Woman.... and Sound of Metal

Best Costume Design

1. Emma.
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Mank
4. One Night in Miami
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

        also in the running...

Mulan, Ammonite, Jingle Jangle, The Glorias, Promising Young Woman, News of the World, The Personal History of David Copperfield.... and Pinocchio

Best Production Design

1. Emma.
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the world
4. Mank
5. Mulan

        also in the running...

One Night in Miami, Tenet, Ammonite, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, First Cow.... and The Father

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Emma.
2. Birds of Prey
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Mank
5. Pinocchio

        also in the running...

Jingle Jangle, Hillbilly Elegy, One Night in Miami, The Glorias, The Little Things

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Soul
5. Welcome to Chechnya

        also in the running...

Love and Monsters, Mank, Birds of Prey, One and Only Ivan, Bloodshot

Best Sound

1. Tenet
2. Soul
3. Sound of Metal
4. Mank
5. News of the World

        also in the running...

Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Midnight Sky.... and Greyhound

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Tenet
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Minari

        also in the running...

All of the films left on the eligibility list, but especially The Midnight Sky and News of the World... and Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. Judas and the Black Messiah, "Fight for You"
2. One Night in Miami, "Speak Now"
3. The Life Ahead, "Io Si (Seen)"
4. Jingle Jangle, "Make it Work"
5. All In, "Turntables"

        also in the running...

Virtually anything from the eligibility list could show up and it would seem plausible to me. I don't even know what songs are at this point. Eurovision sounds like it could not be up their alley.... or perhaps it could be. As well as The Trial of the Chicago 7 song that I totally remember existing....

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. Shaun the Sheep 2
5. Ride Your Wave

        also in the running...

Onward, The Croods 2, Calamity.... Again, plug any of the eligible films in and I would have no choice but to believe your argument.

Best Documentary

1. Time
2. Boys State
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. MLK/FBI
5. Dick Johnson is Dead

        also in the running...

Crip Camp, Collective, All In, The Truffle Hunters, The Painter and the Thief.... and The Mole Agent.... and My Octopus Teacher.... I have no choice but to believe that these are real titles.

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis Aida?
3. Collective
4. Night of Kings
5. La Llorna

        also in the running...

I'm Not Here, Dear Comrades!, Two of Us... and The Man Who Sold His Skin... and Better Days.

-- And that does it. I'm not predicting the shorts. I struggled to think of contenders for several categories. Gives me very little faith that Oscar voters will be able to come up with more than a dozen or so films to vote for, but maybe I'll be wrong.