2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Months of speculation, controversy, and online debate have led to this moment...my return to the blog! Just kidding, it's the Oscar nominations! As I usually do, I thought I would share my predictions and work through my own thoughts on the awards race so far and the impending nominations.

I will try not to despair so much over many of the questionable choices AMPAS will make on nomination morning, since there's always the chance that I will be pleased with the individual lineups. But I would like to point out that our the ways in which we engage these movies and responses to them play an important role in their fate as cultural touchstones. If I happen to find Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to be pedestrian and simplistic in how they handle issues of race and sexuality (each applying to both films) and you happen to enjoy them, then your first reaction doesn't have to be indignation. It's not that I personally find people who like this movie to be racist or homophobic. I just wonder why these are always the only types of racial or queer stories that are ever accepted into the cultural consciousness. If you do like these movies, then that might be an important question to ask yourself.

So, with that being said, let's look at my probably wrong and misguided predictions:

Best Picture

1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Crazy Rich Asians
9. Vice

if there are 10...
10. First Man

On the cusp: First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, Leave No Trace

Also in the running: Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Cold War, Widows

Outside shots: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, The Rider, Boy Erased, You Were Never Really Here, We the Animals

-- Not predicting Bohemian Rhapsody, despite its durable, if bewildering, precursor support. I do think it's an egregious movie, although that hasn't stopped me from predicting them before. My own feelings aside, it just strikes me as a populist choice that garners industry attention within various guilds, but ends up with little-to-no support from the Academy. Is it the kind of movie that will receive enough #1 votes to get nominated? You could make the same argument against Crazy Rich Asians chances, which showed up in the same places as Bohemian Rhapsody (Golden Globes, PGA, SAG), but isn't regarded as much of a threat for a nomination. The only difference is that people actually like Crazy Rich Asians and it doesn't whitewash what it pertains to be about (looking at you, too, Green Book). I'd say everything else is pretty safe, aside from If Beale Street Could Talk, which is the best movie of the year so of course it has the best chance of missing.

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
2. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
4. Ryan Coogler - Black Panther
5. Debra Granik - Leave No Trace

On the cusp: Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite, Peter Farrely - Green Book, Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk

Also in the running: Adam McKay - Vice, Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War, Damien Chazelle - First Man, Paul Schrader - First Reformed, John Krasinski - A Quiet Place

Outside shots: Steve McQueen - Widows, Chloe Zhao - The Rider, Lynne Ramsay - You Were Never Really Here, Rob Marshall - Mary Poppins Returns

-- Among any of the potential "surprise" nominees, Debra Granik's name being called would get the biggest hurrah from me. First, because it would be a great win for Team Campion, and second, because her work in Leave No Trace is the kind of direction I'd like to see rewarded more frequently. Soulful yet tough-minded command in its accumulative emotional impact and subtle coaxing of its communities and POVs. It'll probably be Peter Farrely, but if voters watched their Leave No Trace screeners at the right time, then I'm willing to believe it will stick with enough of them to make this happen.

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close - The Wife
2. Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman - The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns

On the cusp: Toni Collette - Hereditary, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio - Roma, Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade, Julia Roberts - Ben is Back

Also in the running: Viola Davis - Widows, Regina Hall - Support the Girls, Rosamund Pike - A Private War, Carey Mulligan - Wildlife

Outside Shots: Amandla Stenberg - The Hate U Give, Charlize Theron - Tully, Kathryn Hahn - Private Life, Constance Wu - Crazy Rich Asians

-- I fear it isn't going to happen for Emily Blunt. Though she wouldn't be my first choice for a nomination, I would be thrilled to see Blunt finally rewarded all these years after The Devil Wears Prada, which should have been her first Oscar nomination. The film's charms do fade the further you get from it, so it would not surprise me to see it get less support than it needs for a nomination outside of the technical categories. I'm still predicting her, but am keeping an eye out for people like Collette or Kidman who leave a more potent impact.

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
2. Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
3. Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
4. Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
5. John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman

On the cusp: Christian Bale - Vice, Ben Foster - Leave No Trace

Also in the running: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling - First Man

Outside shots: Joaquin Phoenix - You Were Never Really Here, John Cho - Searching, Robert Redford - The Old Man and the Gun, John C. Reilly - Stan & Ollie, Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased

-- The BFCA and Globe wins probably make my decision to exclude Bale in my predictions seem like a lapse in good judgment, but this does seem like one of those years where a supposed lock is shockingly left out on nomination morning. Bale in Vice has been a foregone conclusion for so long while people like Hawke, Malek, and Washington keep inspiring passionate fans to vote for them.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams - Vice
3. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
4. Emma Stone - The Favourite
5. Claire Foy - First Man

On the cusp: Thomasin McKenzie - Leave No Trace, Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased, Michelle Yeoh - Crazy Rich Asians, Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots

Also in the running: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place, Elizabeth Debicki - Widows, Danai Gurira - Black Panther

Outside shots: Linda Cardellini - Green Book, Cynthia Erivo - Widows, Tilda Swinton - Suspiria

-- I feel pretty confident about King's chances at this point, mostly because none of the other contenders have cemented themselves as a serious front runner the same . Adams will get in for being perfectly fine in a movie that doesn't ask her to dig as deeply as she does in her best nominated performances. Stone and Weisz will ride their category fraud campaign to easy nominations on the coattails of The Favourite's Best Picture and Best Actress momentum. I'm still predicting Foy for the last slot, even though First Man failed to catch on leading up to the nominations. I could see any of the four actresses outside of the predicted five (McKenzie, Kidman, Yeoh, Robbie) making it over her, but Foy benefits from playing a role they love (Concerned, Supportive Wife) and, more importantly, for supporting the emotional core of the movie in a role that they love. Whether First Man is completely dead as an Oscar contender is debatable (I still think it could happen), but I would not underestimate Foy.


Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali - Green Book
2. Sam Elliot - A Star is Born
3. Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
5. Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy

On the cusp: Bryan Tyree Henry - If Beale Street Could Talk, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther, Daniel Kaluuya - Widows

Also in the running: Sam Rockwell - Vice, Steven Yeun - Burning, Colman Domingo - If Beale Street Could Talk

Outside shots: Russell Crowe - Boy Erased, Russel Hornsby - The Hate U Give, Raul Castillo - We the Animals, Josh Hamilton - Eighth Grade, Alessandro Nivola - Disobedience

-- Not expecting these five to budge. I briefly flirted with the idea of Chalamet dropping out for Jordan, but still think it's a longshot. Rockwell would be more likely.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. A Star is Born
4. Crazy Rich Asians
5. Leave No Trace

On the cusp: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Man, The Death of Stalin

Also in the running: Widows, Wildlife, Boy Erased, Black Panther

Outside shots: Mary Queen of Scots, Disobedience, The Frontrunner, Mary Poppins Returns

-- Crazy Rich Asians and Leave No Trace look to be the most vulnerable, but BlacKkKlansman, Beale Street, and A Star is Born should be safe bets. Keep feeling the Academy won't warm to Can You Ever Forgive Me?, though the writers branch would probably come closer than any other branch.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Green Book
2. The Favourite
3. Vice
4. Roma
5. First Reformed

On the cusp: Cold War, Sorry to Bother You

Also in the running: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Isle of Dogs, Eighth Grade

Outside shots: Tully, Private Life, Shoplifters, Support the Girls

-- Struggling to generate enthusiasm for a category whose frontrunner is about a racist white man who redeems himself by driving a black jazz musician around for a month while lecturing him about his own misgivings about race, but none of that matters because they're friendship stands above any racial tensions. Written by a guy who published this tweet.

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Also eligible: Here's a handy list of the films submitted for eligibility!

-- Was tempted to predict an upset with Isle of Dogs or Spider-Man missing the nomination, but I truly don't know which film would show up in their place. If any of the more under-the-radar submissions grab the Academy's attention, I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them as a shock omission.

Best Documentary

1. Won't You Be My Neighbor
2. Free Solo
3. Minding the Gap
4. Dark Money
5. Three Identical Strangers

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): RBG, Hale County This Morning This Evening, Of Fathers & Sons, Shirkers, Communion, The Silence of Others, The Distant Barking of Dogs, Crime + Punishment, Charm City, On Her Shoulders

-- Only seen Won't You Be My Neighbor among the predicted five. Shirkers would be an excellent inclusion.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Capernaum
4. Shoplifters
5. The Guilty

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): Never Look Away, Burning, Ayka, Birds of Passage

-- I could see Cold War missing out, even if it shows up in other places.

Best Cinematography

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star is Born
5. First Man

On the cusp: Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite

Also in the running: Mary Queen of Scots, Black Panther, Widows, A Quiet Place, At Eternity's Gate, Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice

Outside Shots: The Rider

-- I don't see this category straying too far from the expected crop of contenders. Beale Street would be one of those outrageous omissions that would make sense when you think about the poor judgment that has shaped this awards season.

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Poppins Returns
2. Black Panther
3. The Favourite
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

On the cusp: Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald

Also in the running: First Man, Crazy Rich Asians, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Outisde shots: Suspiria, Colette

-- Ballad of Buster Scruggs is the only true wildcard here with everyone else seeming like safe bets. The scenario that seems just as likely is the costume designers branch defaulting to their Potter love and giving the fifth slot to Fantastic Beasts, but I'm not even confident Harry Potter fans remember it.

Best Film Editing

1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. Black Panther
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

On the cusp: Vice, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite

Also in the running: First Man, A Quiet Place

Outside shot: Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Mary Poppins Returns, Widows

-- I'm not predicting Bohemian Rhapsody in Best Picutre, but even if I'm right about it missing in Best Picture I could still totally see it getting the non-Best Picture Baby Driver nomination for having the most visible editing.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Border
2. Vice
3. Suspiria

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): Mary Queen of Scots, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, Stan & Ollie

-- Any of the seven eligible contenders seem like perfectly viable choices. Feeling strong about Border, which I didn't see but looks poised to grab the obscure foreign film slot. Very anxious to get around to seeing it.

Best Original Score

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): Black Panther, Ready Player One, BlacKkKlansman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin, Annihilation, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Vice, Avengers: Infinty War

-- As long as Beale Street, First Man, and Isle of Dogs make it, I will be perfectly okay with how this category shapes up. I think A Quiet Place would be an absurd nomination, since that aspect of the movie plays against the entire concept for no discernible reason other than to make sure the audience knows what to feel.

Best Original Song

1. A Star is Born ("The Shallow")
2. Mary Poppins Returns ("The Place Where Lost Things Go")
3. Black Panther ("All of the Stars")
4. Quincy ("Keep Reachin'")
5. The Hate U Give ("We Won't Move")

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): Dumplin' ("Girl in the Movies"), Boy Erased ("Revelation"), Mary Poppins Returns ("Trip a Little Light Fantastic"), RBG ("I'll Fight"), The Ballad of Buster Scruggs ("When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"), Sorry to Bother You ("OYAHYTT"), Widows ("The Big Unknown"), Beautiful Boy ("Treasure"), Ralph Breaks the Internet ("A Place Called Slaughter Race"), Suspiria ("Suspirium")

-- This and Makeup are the two categories that continue to perplex me each and every year. Aside from A Star is Born and Mary Poppins, each of these contenders seem plausible to me.

Best Production Design

1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Roma
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

On the cusp: First Man, BlacKkKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Also in the running: Mary Queen of Scots, Ready Player One, A Quiet Place, If Beale Street Could Talk, Bohemian Rhapsody

Outside shot: Suspiria, Hereditary, Isle of Dogs

-- I suspect they will manage to sneak the Potter-verse into the race once again in this category, despite the fact that Hereditary and Isle of Dogs are eligible.

Best Sound Editing

1. Black Panther
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place

On the cusp: Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Incredibles 2, Avengers: Infinity War

Also in the running: Solo, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born

Outside shot: Hereditary, Isle of Dogs, Suspiria

-- Usually prefer when they cut back on superheroes in these categories, but wouldn't mind seeing Spider-Man in addition to Black Panther here. If First Man is going to make a mark anywhere it will most likely be in the aural categories.

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. Black Panther
5. A Quiet Place

On the cusp: Bohemian Rhapsody, Ready Player One, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Avengers: Infinity War

Also in the running: Mary Poppins Returns, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Incredibles 2, Solo, The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk

Outside Shot: Hereditary, You Were Never Really Here, Annihilation

-- Nearly matches Sound Editing outside of the requisite music-heavy nomination for A Star is Born. Could easily see them throw one of those Bohemian Rhapsody's way.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Black Panther
3. Ready Player One
4. Solo
5. First Man

Also eligible (in order of nomination likelihood): Christopher Robin, Mary Poppins Returns, Welcome to Marwen, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

-- Very franchise-heavy lineup outside of First Man. Hopefully it doesn't get sidelined for more VFX-forward films like Marwen.