2016 Oscars: Preferences and Predictions

Picture

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Moonlight
My Vote: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: 20th Century Women

-- There's really no use in questioning it at this point. Whether La La Land sweeps or there's a generous spread of wealth among the other categories, it'll likely take this category easily. Moonlight would be my choice and the only one that could feasibly unseat it.

Director

Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Alternate: Barry Jenkins
My Vote: Barry Jenkins
Should Have Been Nominated: Mia Hansen-Love - Things to Come

-- Same story as Best Picture.

Actress

Prediction: Emma Stone
Alternate: Isabelle Huppert
My Vote: Isabelle Huppert
Should Have Been Nominated: Annette Bening - 20th Century Women

-- If there was any doubt over the Bona Fide Star status of Emma Stone's career, they'll be put to rest shortly. I couldn't be happier for her, and she'd likely be my choice if not for Huppert. Stay tuned for more about this lineup.

Actor

Prediction: Denzel Washington
Alternate: Casey Affleck
My Vote: Denzel Washington
Should Have Been Nominated: Vincent Lindon - The Measure of a Man

-- A two-horse race between Denzel and Casey. An excitingly tight race, but I'm leaning Denzel.

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Viola Davis
Alternate: Michelle Williams
My Vote: Viola Davis
Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women

-- Hook, line, and sinker, this is Viola's Oscar to lose. I'd have her as a lead, but she earns the praise and win, and I understand arguments for Supporting.

Supporting Actor

Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Alternate: Dev Patel
My Vote: Mahershala Ali
Should Have Been Nominated: Trevante Rhodes - Moonlight

-- I'm hoping for Ali, but Patel's steadily rising. Close call.

Original Screenplay

Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Alternate: La La Land
My Vote: 20th Century Women
Should Have Been Nominated: Things to Come

-- La La Land's the BP fav, but musicals rarely fare well in Screenplay.

Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Moonlight
Alternate: Fences
My Vote: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: Love & Friendship

-- Hidden Figures and Lion have broader support, but Fences and Moonlight are trickiest and more respected. I'd be happy for both.

Animated Feature

Prediction: Zootopia
Alternate: Kubo and the Two Strings
My Vote: Moana or Zootopia

-- Kubo has its admirers, with a big hook in regards to the detail in craft. Still, Zootopia's popularity and timely message will likely give it the edge. Disney killed it this year!

Documentary

Prediction: O.J. Made in America
Alternate: Fire at Sea
Should Have Been Nominated: Cameraperson

-- Sadly, I've only seen O.J. and 13th.  Predicting the former, but anxious to see the others. Where's Cameraperson or Trapped?

Foreign Film

Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Alternate: The Salesman
Should Have Been Nominated: Elle

-- I'm guessing Toni for ambition and remake heat. Salesman and Farhadi clearly have supporters.

Cinematography

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Arrival
My Vote: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: Jackie

-- Five impressive feats, especially Moonlight's striking lensing. La La has the glitzy spectacle to pull it off.

Costume Design

Prediction: Florence Foster Jenkins
Alternate: Jackie
My Vote: Jackie or La La Land
Should Have Been Nominated: Hail, Caesar!

-- I've struggled most with this category. I thought about Jackie or La La, but I like the Memoirs/Marie Antoinette/Duchess reasoning that the most frock-heavy film wins in a tight race, so Florence it is.

Film Editing

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: 20th Century Women

-- Like Cinematography, Moonlight won me over the most, but La La has the momentum/showiness. Hacksaw a spoiler?

Production Design

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
My Vote: Hail, Caesar!
Should Have Been Nominated: Francofonia

-- Caesar's revolving Old-Hollywood pleasures beguiled me a little more than La La Land was trying to, not that it'll upset here. Arrival would be my next choice.

Original Score

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Lion
My Vote: Jackie
Should Have Been Nominated: Arrival

-- Passengers is the only score to elude me in an otherwise strong lineup. Jackie and Moonlight are most deserving, but La La has it sealed.

Original Song

Prediction: "City of Stars"
Alternate: "How Far I'll Go"
My Vote: "How Far I'll Go"
Should Have Been Nominated: "Drive it Like You Stole It" from Sing Street

-- "How Far I'll Go" is the best Disney song since "Colors of the Wind". It'd be my vote as well as my prediction if it weren't for "City"'s prominence.

Sound Mixing

Prediction: La La Land
Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: The Fits

-- I don't believe La La Land will sweep, but when the frontrunner is so prominent in the tech categories you can expect a lot of default name-checking. Plus: musical.

Sound Editing

Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Alternate: La La Land
My Vote: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: The Witch

-- Arrival stands well above the nominees in both categories for me. Hacksaw has the gunfire/artillery vote.

Makeup & Hairstyling

Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
Alternate: Suicide Squad
My Vote: Star Trek Beyond
Should Have Been Nominated: Hail, Caesar!

-- Star Trek, I guess? It's the only good nominee.

Visual Effects

Prediction: The Jungle Book
Alternate: Kubo and the Two Strings
My Vote: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Have Been Nominated: Arrival

-- Kubo could win here for the same reasons it could win in Animated Feature. Technically speaking, Jungle Book has the harder job/more noticeable work so it'll have the slight edge, I think.