Predictions for the 2016 Oscar Nominations

La La Land is destined for Oscar glory, but how much are we talking?

1/19: Only have Picture and Director so far. More to come throughout the coming days.

1/20: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are now up.

1/21: Costumes, Production Design, Score, and Song predictions are now complete. I might add more tonight, but I have a wedding to go to, so probs not.

1/22: Animated Feature, Documentary, Foreign, Sound, Sound Effects, Makeup, and Visual Effects added to the pile. Might add more tonight after I see 20th Century Women.

Update: Added predictions for both Screenplay categories. Will complete tomorrow. Also 20th Century Women is ten kinds of amazing and deserves multiple nominations. A travesty that Annette Bening isn't locked for a nomination and win.

1/23: And that's a wrap! All categories are complete. Now we wait for tomorrow morning!

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Hell or High Water
6. Arrival
7. Hidden Figures
8. Loving
   and if there are 10...
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Hacksaw Ridge

Also in the running: Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Sully, Silence

The populist vote: Deadpool, Zootopia

Arthouse oddities: 20th Century Women, Toni Erdmann, Elle, Captain Fantastic, Jackie

-- I'm keeping the two least desirable outcomes outside of the top eight, despite both Nocturnal Animals and Hacksaw Ridge having a strong show of support this season. My aversion to those two movies notwithstanding, I have a hunch that Loving has a solid enough fanbase to make it in, assuming it's only down to eight.

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Garth Davis, Lion
5. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Also in the running: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival; Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals; Jeff Nichols, Loving, Denzel Washington, Fences; Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Auteur loyalties: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge; Martin Scorsese, Silence, Clint Eastwood, Suly

If they connect to an audacious vision: Paul Verhoeven, Elle

Fading, but in the conversation: Pablo Larrain, Jackie; Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

-- There's always one contender who's left out after being defaulted as a safe bet, and Villeneuve definitely fits the bill. I could be wrong, but the whole race has been shaping up to feel less stable over the past month.

Supp. Actress: any room for surprises?

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Also in the running: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures; Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Critical darlings (have they been watching their screeners?): Lily Gladstone, Certain Women; Molly Shannon, Other People; Riley Keough, American Honey; Kate Dickie, The Witch

-- The one acting category that feels fairly set in stone for me. Could we see both Monae and Spencer for Hidden Figures?

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Also in the running: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals; Stephen Henderson, Fences; Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Critical darlings: Craig Robinson, Morris from America; Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship; Alden Ehrenreich, Hail, Caesar!

Superb Moonlight options: Trevante Rhodes; André Holland; Ashton Sanders; Alex R. Hibbert

-- I'm sure I'm the first person to admit this, but here goes: Mahershala Ali is fantastic in Moonlight. He's likely going to be the best winner this category has seen Christopher Plummer in Beginners. But he's not the only worthy contender from Moonlight! Ali is likely to be the only representative of the film for this category, but everything about that final segment with Trevante Rhodes and André Holland is mesmerizing. Lucas Hedges seems to be the safer spoiler for that up-in-the-air fifth spot, and certainly has more support than Ben Foster at the moment. Still, my reasoning is that a crowded field + love for Hell or High Water ÷ young actor discrimination = good luck for Foster?

More predictions after the jump...

Best Costume Design

1. Jackie
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. La La Land
4. The Dressmaker
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Also in the running: Silence, The Handmaiden, A Bigger Splash, Allied, Café Society, Rules Don't Apply, Hail, Caesar!

-- The Dressmaker is all about the costumes, and this is the rare branch that makes an effort to seek out more than a handful of the same movies that keep getting mentioned during the precursors, so I'm going out on a limb with it.

Best Production Design

1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Silence
4. Arrival
5. Live by Night

Also in the running: Florence Foster Jenkins, Nocturnal Animals, Jackie, The Handmaiden, Hail, Caesar!, The BFG

-- Live by Night was completely dead on arrival, but the sets seem to be the one thing that get people excited.

Clawhauser will be ecstatic if the Academy shows Gazelle some love.

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars" from La La Land
2. "How Far I'll Go" from Moana
3. "Audition" from La La Land
4. "Drive it Like You Stole It" from Sing Street
5. "Try Everything" from Zootopia

Also in the running: Here's the full eligibility list.

-- Moana and at least one of the La La Land songs should be safe here. Otherwise, this category is often tough to crack. I'd say look out for the Miss Sharon Jones song, since they tend to nominate songs from eligible documentaries. I should probably be predicting it, but I didn't want to get rid of Sing Street or Zootopia.

Best Original Score

1. La La Land
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Lion
4. Rogue One
5. Moonlight

Also in the running: Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Jackie, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Light Between Oceans, The BFG, Hell or High Water, 

-- This branch is typically resistant to newcomers, but the year's most lauded scores came largely from unexpected sources like Mica Levy's work for Jackie or Nicolas Brittell's for Moonlight. Still, they love sticking to their old standbys so I'm predicting Desplat and Giacchino to get in, at least.

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. The Red Turtle
4. Kubo and the Two Strings
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Also in the running: The Secret Life of Pets, The Little Prince, April & the Extraordinary World, Finding Dory, Your Name, Sing

Dark Horse: Sausage Party

-- Thinking Zucchini pulls a Waltz With Bashir and ends up nominated for Animated Feature instead of Foreign.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) 
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
5. Paradise (Russia)

Also in the running: My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland), It's only the End of the World (Canada), Tanna (Australia), The King's Choice (Norway)

Eliminated faves: Elle (France), Neruda (Chile), Julieta (Spain), Chevalier (Greece)

-- With Elle and Neruda out of the picture, it's looking more and more like Toni Erdmann's to lose, though A Man Called Ove had a lot of crossover appeal during its theatrical run.

I Am Not Your Negro hits more theaters next month! Be excited.

Best Documentary

1. 13th
2. O.J.: Made in America
3. Fire at Sea
4. I Am Not Your Negro
5. The Ivory Game

Also in the running: Weiner, Cameraperson, Life, Animated, The Eagle Huntress, Gleason, Tower

-- I think the media obsession with O.J. Simpson reached a peak in 2016, so that alone should help it here, despite the issues some have with it being made for TV.

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Hell or High Water
5. Rogue One

Also in the running: Sully, Captain America: Civil War, The Jungle Book, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, Allied

Best Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Rogue One
3. Arrival
4. Hell or High Water
5. Sully

Also in the running: Captain America: Civil War, La La Land, Deadpool, Doctor Strange, Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Jason Bourne

-- I'm guessing we'll have a 4/5 correlation between the sound categories? I.e. one slot for the musical in Mixing.

Best Film Editing

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Hell or High Water
5. Manchester by the Sea

Also in the running: Arrival, Nocturnal Animals, Sully, Lion, Deadpool

-- Another easy get for La La Land. Predicting Manchester over Arrival might not be my wisest move, but we've seen this category favor Best Picture heavyweights in the past over films with trickier narrative feats.

"About the size of a KFC spork."

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Deadpool
3. A Man Called Ove

Also in the running: The Dressmaker, Star Trek Beyond, Hail, Caesar!, Suicide Squad

-- A Man Called Ove = the year's obscure foreign title in this category?

Best Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One
5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Also in the running: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The BFG, Captain America: Civil War, Passengers, Deepwater Horizon

-- Kubo would be the second animated film to be nominated here if it makes the cut (the first was Nightmare Before Christmas in 1993). Will they want more noticeable CGI effects from their favorite franchises (Harry Potter and Marvel)?

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Fences
3. Arrival
4. Lion
5. Hidden Figures

Also in the running: Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Deadpool, Silence, Sully

Dark horses: Elle, Love & Friendship

-- I fear I'm underestimating Nocturnal Animals, but these five do feel set.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Hell or High Water
3. La La Land
4. Zootopia
5. The Lobster

Also in the running: 20th Century Women, Captain Fantastic, Jackie

Dark horses: Toni Erdmann, Hail, Caesar!

-- I've been resisting the inclination to predict The Lobster here over the past couple of months, but it's not an especially stacked category this year and it's had a lot of support in the precursors so we'll see. It would be a well-deserved nominee if it does happen.

Best Cinematography

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Nocturnal Animals

Also in the running: Silence, Hell or High Water, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail, Caesar!, The Handmaiden, The Light Between Oceans

-- Straying slightly from the ASC nominees and predictin Nocturnal Animals gets in over Silence.

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Also in the running: Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool; Tom Hanks, Sully; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

-- I came this close to predicting Reynolds for Deadpool, but then remembered the comic-book genre isn't AMPAS' scene at all and that we might be getting carried away by predicting it for Best Picture. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I would urge everyone to temper their expectations a bit. As for Garfield: he has a good shot, but I'm getting serious Jennifer Aniston in Cake vibes in terms of having a disappointing outcome on nomination morning. I'm thinking the movie in general will just show up in the craft categories.

Best Actress is a packed field this year. Which of these will be left out?

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Natalie Portman, Jackie
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Also in the running: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins; Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Nomination morning surprises?: Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane; Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

-- I am so sad that Bening has failed to pick up any steam this season. She's doing maybe her best work ever, juggling warmth, elusiveness, and sharp-edged humor with little effort. At least we might get Huppert as a consolation, who's collected nearly every trophy she needs to get on voters' radars. I've toyed with the idea of a Portman omission, but even though the movie as been ignored during the precursors she's remained strong in the conversation. Still, surprises happen!