Quick SAG Predictions

Moonlight's convincing collection of actors is among 2016's highlights.

Ensemble

• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Alternate: 20th Century Women, considering how big and talented the cast is, but I'm worried for this one!

Dark Horse: Thought about Silence for this, but aside from how much of a stretch it is to call any Scorsese film a "dark horse" for awards consideration, I'm even more suspicious of Nocturnal Animals and the next awards-related aneurysm it'll bring me.

Female Lead Actor

• Amy Adams - Arrival
• Isabelle Huppert - Elle
• Ruth Negga - Loving
• Natalie Portman - Jackie
• Emma Stone - La La Land

Alternate: Annette Bening, as much as I want this to be her year. The sixth spot could theoretically go to any actress other than Portman or Stone, but I'm feeling a shut-out for Bening's vehicle. *sobs*

Dark Horse: Amy Adams' best shot is probably for Arrival, but you guys....what if they reeeeaaaally like Nocturnal Animals?

Male Lead Actor

• Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling - La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington - Fences

Alternate: Tom Hanks, close but no cigar since 2013.

Dark Horse: Chris Pine, though Jeff Bridges seems to be drawing all the attention for Hell or High Water.

Molly Shannon: Great in her 70s dress and in Other People.

Female Supporting Actor

• Viola Davis - Fences
• Naomie Harris - Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman - Lion
• Molly Shannon - Other People
• Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

Alternate: Greta Gerwig, who's been precariously perched at the fifth slot in the Oscar race for a couple of weeks now as precursors keep passing between her and four others.

Dark Horse: Helen Mirren for Eye in the Sky, though she's always a threat for SAG so maybe Lily Gladstone (Certain Women) would be a pleasant surprise.

Male Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
• Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins
• Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel - Lion

Alternate: Michael Shannon who found a way to get noticed last year for a less buzzed-about film than Nocturnal Animals.

Dark Horse: On the off chance that Jackie gets recognized in Ensemble (possible), could we see Peter Sarsgaard finally surprise us here? He's only lost traction since the precursors, despite the draws of playing a beloved historical figure and being unrecognized throughout his critically-praised career. Also: Trevante Rhodes!