2016 Golden Globe Predictions - Nominations

Presented with very little commentary since I'm pressed for time. The HFPA will make their announcements tomorrow morning, and while I like most of the hunches I'm going on, I'm not sure how aligned they are with what most prognosticators are thinking.

Picture: Drama

• Arrival
• Fences
• Loving
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Or maybe: Lion, Hidden Figures, Sully, or Silence

-- This would be the opportune moment for either Lion or Hidden Figures to gain momentum, but who misses in their place? Loving the most vulnerable.

Picture: Musical/Comedy

• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• The Lobster
• Love & Friendship
• Sing Street

Or maybe: 20th Century Women, Florence Foster Jenkins, or The Nice Guys

-- RE: 20th Century Women: Is it Bening and nothing else? It's certainly the most recent of the bunch, as opposed to the other non-La La Land films which all came out during the first half of the year. Will they linger with voters?

Actress: Drama

• Amy Adams - Arrival
• Taraji P. Henson - Hidden Figures
• Isabelle Huppert - Elle
• Ruth Negga - Loving
• Natalie Portman - Jackie

Or maybe: Jessica Chastain - Miss Sloane, Rebecca Hall - Christine, Rachel Weisz - Denial, or Emily Blunt - The Girl on the Train

-- This is where Emmanuelle Riva and Charlotte Rampling both stumbled. The acting categories typically favor American performers, despite their Foreign Press title. Will Huppert just be too undeniable?

Actor: Drama

• Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
• Joel Edgerton - Loving
• Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
• Tom Hanks - Sully
• Denzel Washington - Fences

Or maybe: Andrew Garfield - Silence, Chris Pine - Hell or High Water or Matthew McConaughey - Gold

-- I'd be surprised if anyone other than these five made it in, considering how thin the field is.

Comedy acting locks and they know it.

Actress: Musical/Comedy

• Kate Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
• Annette Bening - 20th Century Women
• Sally Field - Hello, My Name is Doris
• Emma Stone - La La Land
• Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Or maybe: Kate Winslet - The Dressmaker, Rachel Weisz - The Lobster, Susan Sarandon - The Meddler, or Renne Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Baby

-- These five feel set, but I could definitely see a surprise like Winslet or Weisz.

Actor: Musical/Comedy

• Colin Farrell - The Lobster
• Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins
• Ryan Gosling - La La Land
• Ryan Gosling - The Nice Guys
• Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

Or maybe: Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead, Warren Beatty - Rules Don't Apply, Russell Crowe - The Nice Guys, or Ryan Reynolds - Deadpool

-- Going out on a limb with a double nomination for Gosling. I suspect Cheadle in one of his slots would be the more likely scenario, though.

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis - Fences
• Naomie Harris - Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman - Lion
• Janelle Monae - Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

Or maybe: Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women, Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures, or Lilly Gladstone - Certain Women

-- I'll probably be kicking myself for excluding Gerwig (remember how they liked Frances Ha?), but Monae is probably gonna have a big boost after how great last week was as well as her strong turn in Moonlight.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel - Lion
• Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

Or maybe: Trevante Rhodes - Moonlight, Ben Foster - Hell or High Water, Peter Sarsgaard - Jackie, or Stephen Henderson - Fences

-- Even if this is how the Globes turn out, this probably won't be Oscars lineup. So hoping Rhodes surprises!

Mahershala keeps racking up prizes

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle - La La Land
• Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
• Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
• Martin Scorsese - Silence
• Denzel Washington - Fences

Or maybe: Jeff Nichols - Loving, Pablo Larrain - Jackie, David Mackenzie - Hell or High Water, or Clint Eastwood - Sully

-- I firmly believe the general wisdom that awards bodies, no matter how mediocre the project may be, will vote Scorsese.

Best Screenplay

• Fences
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight
• Silence

Or maybe: Hell or High Water, Loving, The Lobster, or Lion

-- I had Hell or High Water here, but swapped it for Silence since it's script has been getting a lot of citations.

Best Original Score

• Arrival
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land
• Lion

Or maybe: Moonlight, Zootopia, The Light Between Oceans, or The BFG

-- Will they go for such a song-heavy score with La La Land?

Best Original Song

• La La Land - "City of Stars"
• Moana - "How Far I'll Go"
• Sing Street - "Drive it Like You Stole It"
• Trolls - "Can't Stop the Feeling"
• Zootopia - "Try Everything"

Or maybe: Some other songs from La La Land and/or Moana

-- The right balance of pop and prestige?

Best Animated Feature

• Finding Dory
• Moana
• Sausage Party
• Trolls
• Zootopia

Or maybe: The Red Turtle, Kubo and the Two Strings, or Sing

-- Sausage Party's my wild card here. Am I crazy to think it might pay off?

Best Foreign Language Film

• Elle
• The Handmaiden
• Julieta
• The Salesman
• Things to Come

Or maybe: Toni Erdman, Neruda, Aquarius, or A Man Called Ove

-- Elle + Things to Come a glorious result of Huppert fever?

Huppert has two films in the Foreign Film race. Will Elle dominate the attention?