Picture
Prediction: 1917, because it peaked as a frontrunner during the right stage of voting.
My Vote: Parasite, because we deserve a foreign language Best Picture winner this meticulously layered and craftily shaped.
Should Have Been Nominated: Atlantics, because it's unlike anything else this year, even if the Academy would never in a million years.
Director
Prediction: Mendes, for the reasons listed above.
My Vote: Bong, for the reasons listed above.
Should Have Been Nominated: Mati Diop or Marielle Heller or Greta Gerwig or Lorene Scafaria or Joanna Hogg or Claire Denis or Alma Har'el, because women are fucking great at directing and most of these are more deserving than the actual slate of nominees.
Actress
Prediction: Zellweger, because ever since Judy first screened she's become the entire conversation, steamrolling everyone else in contention.
Preference: Ronan
Should Have Been Nominated: Alfre Woodard
Actor
Prediction: Phoenix, because of the physicality and transformation of the performance, and the desire for voters to reward Joker in a major category.
Preference: Banderas, for using subtle expressions to unearth an entire history about Salvador.
Should Have Been Nominated: Eddie Murphy, for being as delightful and exuberant as ever, while quietly revealing Rudy's insecurities.
Supporting Actress
Prediction: Dern, because she's taken virtually every precursor you need to win this and should cakewalk without Lopez in the picture.
Preference: Pugh, because that monologue is aces and opens up an entirely new viewpoint on Amy.
Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Lopez, for putting everything that's sexy, fun, and personable about her persona on full display while discerningly and gradually revealing how dangerous they can get.
Supporting Actor
Prediction: Pitt, because the industry is ready to see him win an acting Oscar.
Preference: Hanks
Should Have Been Nominated: Aldis Hodge
Original Screenplay
Prediction/Preference: Parasite, because I'm hoping it can score outside of International Feature, and my suspicion is that its twisty, impeccably calibrated script will do the trick.
Should Have Been Nominated: Pain and Glory
Adapted Screenplay
Prediction/Preference: Little Women, because Gerwig's approach to adaptation is the story here, both in terms of campaign and being the the key to the film working as well as it does.
Should Have Been Nominated: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, for avoiding the hagiography you're expecting and creating a tale about the influence Mr. Rogers made on people.
Cinematography
Prediction: 1917, because it has the one-shot gimmick and love for Deakins on its side.
Preference: The Lighthouse, for its stunning work with light and 1.19:1 aspect ratio.
Should Have Been Nominated: Atlantics
Costumes
Prediction: Little Women, because of the beautiful period detail that often inspires voters.
Preference: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, for how instantly iconic Robbie, DiCaprio, and Pitt are.
Should Have Been Nominated: Dolemite is My Name, because the costumes add to the enjoyment of the film and Ruth E. Carter is a total genius who deserved a victory lap this year.
Film Editing
Prediction: Ford v Ferrari, because it's the Most Edited film in the category in the absence of a Best Picture frontrunner.
Preference: Parasite, for those expertly cut montages and the high wire management of the mid-film setpiece.
Should Have Been Nominated: Atlantics, for guiding its elliptical shape and it, keeping the film's cards close to its chest.
Makeup
Prediction/Preference: Joker, for the work on Phoenix, even if it pales in comparison to Ledger.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Irishman, because it navigates the aging conceit in the script much more coherently than the de-ageing technology does.
Original Score
Prediction: 1917, because I suspect people will want to reward Thomas Newman for his career.
Preference: Marriage Story, because on a second watch I began to realize how vital it is to the emotional beats of the film.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Last Black Man in San Francisco, because its sweeping while evoking an intimate feel for character and place.
Original Song
Prediction: Rocketman, because...Elton John?
Preference: Harriet, because I think it would just be swell for Cynthia Erivo to have an EGOT. Plus she has such a lovely voice.
Should Have Been Nominated: "Control" from Her Smell
Production Design
Prediction: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, because the '60s Hollywood sets are disarming, plus it's a key category in which fans can recognize the film.
Preference: Parasite, because the logistics and narrative purpose of that house are even more impressive when you realize they built it from the ground up.
Should Have Been Nominated: Knives Out, because it's another house that adds layers to its narrative while evoking idiosyncratic character and specificity to the family.
Sound Editing
Prediction/Preference: Ford v Ferrari, because the racing sequences are hard to ignore (though we suspect 1917 will double up on Sound wins)
Should Have Been Nominated: Us, for the eerie aura of tension it builds with scissors, lighters, metal bats, etc.
Sound Mixing
Prediction: 1917, because it's just as daunting an achievement on an aural level as it is on a visual one, and the Academy will likely notice that in at least one of the Sound categories.
Preference: Ad Astra
Should Have Been Nominated: Atlantics
Visual Effects
Prediction: 1917, because it's the Best Picture frontrunner and more of a technical challenge than the rest of the nominees.
Preference: The Lion King, because however unnecessary and drab it is as a film, the photorealistic animal textures are often breathtaking.
Should Have Been Nominated: Ad Astra
