Months of speculation, controversy, and online debate have led to this moment...my return to the blog! Just kidding, it's the Oscar nominations! As I usually do, I thought I would share my predictions and work through my own thoughts on the awards race so far and the impending nominations.
I will try not to despair so much over many of the questionable choices AMPAS will make on nomination morning, since there's always the chance that I will be pleased with the individual lineups. But I would like to point out that our the ways in which we engage these movies and responses to them play an important role in their fate as cultural touchstones. If I happen to find Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to be pedestrian and simplistic in how they handle issues of race and sexuality (each applying to both films) and you happen to enjoy them, then your first reaction doesn't have to be indignation. It's not that I personally find people who like this movie to be racist or homophobic. I just wonder why these are always the only types of racial or queer stories that are ever accepted into the cultural consciousness. If you do like these movies, then that might be an important question to ask yourself.
So, with that being said, let's look at my probably wrong and misguided predictions:
Best Picture
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Crazy Rich Asians
9. Vice
if there are 10...
10. First Man
On the cusp: First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, Leave No Trace
Also in the running: Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Cold War, Widows
Outside shots: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, The Rider, Boy Erased, You Were Never Really Here, We the Animals
-- Not predicting Bohemian Rhapsody, despite its durable, if bewildering, precursor support. I do think it's an egregious movie, although that hasn't stopped me from predicting them before. My own feelings aside, it just strikes me as a populist choice that garners industry attention within various guilds, but ends up with little-to-no support from the Academy. Is it the kind of movie that will receive enough #1 votes to get nominated? You could make the same argument against Crazy Rich Asians chances, which showed up in the same places as Bohemian Rhapsody (Golden Globes, PGA, SAG), but isn't regarded as much of a threat for a nomination. The only difference is that people actually like Crazy Rich Asians and it doesn't whitewash what it pertains to be about (looking at you, too, Green Book). I'd say everything else is pretty safe, aside from If Beale Street Could Talk, which is the best movie of the year so of course it has the best chance of missing.
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
2. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
4. Ryan Coogler - Black Panther
5. Debra Granik - Leave No Trace
On the cusp: Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite, Peter Farrely - Green Book, Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk
Also in the running: Adam McKay - Vice, Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War, Damien Chazelle - First Man, Paul Schrader - First Reformed, John Krasinski - A Quiet Place
Outside shots: Steve McQueen - Widows, Chloe Zhao - The Rider, Lynne Ramsay - You Were Never Really Here, Rob Marshall - Mary Poppins Returns
-- Among any of the potential "surprise" nominees, Debra Granik's name being called would get the biggest hurrah from me. First, because it would be a great win for Team Campion, and second, because her work in Leave No Trace is the kind of direction I'd like to see rewarded more frequently. Soulful yet tough-minded command in its accumulative emotional impact and subtle coaxing of its communities and POVs. It'll probably be Peter Farrely, but if voters watched their Leave No Trace screeners at the right time, then I'm willing to believe it will stick with enough of them to make this happen.
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close - The Wife
2. Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman - The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
On the cusp: Toni Collette - Hereditary, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio - Roma, Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade, Julia Roberts - Ben is Back
Also in the running: Viola Davis - Widows, Regina Hall - Support the Girls, Rosamund Pike - A Private War, Carey Mulligan - Wildlife
Outside Shots: Amandla Stenberg - The Hate U Give, Charlize Theron - Tully, Kathryn Hahn - Private Life, Constance Wu - Crazy Rich Asians
-- I fear it isn't going to happen for Emily Blunt. Though she wouldn't be my first choice for a nomination, I would be thrilled to see Blunt finally rewarded all these years after The Devil Wears Prada, which should have been her first Oscar nomination. The film's charms do fade the further you get from it, so it would not surprise me to see it get less support than it needs for a nomination outside of the technical categories. I'm still predicting her, but am keeping an eye out for people like Collette or Kidman who leave a more potent impact.
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
2. Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
3. Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
4. Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
5. John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
On the cusp: Christian Bale - Vice, Ben Foster - Leave No Trace
Also in the running: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling - First Man
Outside shots: Joaquin Phoenix - You Were Never Really Here, John Cho - Searching, Robert Redford - The Old Man and the Gun, John C. Reilly - Stan & Ollie, Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased
-- The BFCA and Globe wins probably make my decision to exclude Bale in my predictions seem like a lapse in good judgment, but this does seem like one of those years where a supposed lock is shockingly left out on nomination morning. Bale in Vice has been a foregone conclusion for so long while people like Hawke, Malek, and Washington keep inspiring passionate fans to vote for them.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams - Vice
3. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
4. Emma Stone - The Favourite
5. Claire Foy - First Man
On the cusp: Thomasin McKenzie - Leave No Trace, Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased, Michelle Yeoh - Crazy Rich Asians, Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
Also in the running: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place, Elizabeth Debicki - Widows, Danai Gurira - Black Panther
Outside shots: Linda Cardellini - Green Book, Cynthia Erivo - Widows, Tilda Swinton - Suspiria
-- I feel pretty confident about King's chances at this point, mostly because none of the other contenders have cemented themselves as a serious front runner the same . Adams will get in for being perfectly fine in a movie that doesn't ask her to dig as deeply as she does in her best nominated performances. Stone and Weisz will ride their category fraud campaign to easy nominations on the coattails of The Favourite's Best Picture and Best Actress momentum. I'm still predicting Foy for the last slot, even though First Man failed to catch on leading up to the nominations. I could see any of the four actresses outside of the predicted five (McKenzie, Kidman, Yeoh, Robbie) making it over her, but Foy benefits from playing a role they love (Concerned, Supportive Wife) and, more importantly, for supporting the emotional core of the movie in a role that they love. Whether First Man is completely dead as an Oscar contender is debatable (I still think it could happen), but I would not underestimate Foy.
