Best Picture
Prediction: Get Out
Alternate: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: BPM (Beats Per Minute)
-- I'm hearing everyone out on their individual predictions for this category. I buy most of them, even the one involving my personal favorite of the bunch, Lady Bird, taking it. On a gut level, though, I'm probably leaning more towards Get Out benefiting from the preferential ballot. You could make the same argument for The Shape of Water, which similarly has groundswell support, but I'm thinking Picture and Director split again. Which speaking of...
Best Director
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
Alternate: Jordan Peele
My Vote: Greta Gerwig
Should Have Been Nominated: Safdie Brothers - Good Time
-- Whether Shape of Water wins Best Picture or not, I believe that we'll have another year where the amount of tech nominations (and probable wins) will have a fair amount of impact on this particular race. I don't agree that del Toro's work is necessarily a trickier achievement than what Gerwig or Peele pull off, but it's arguably the most directed movie of the bunch (e.g. sets, makeup, setpieces), which will probably give it the edge over the other nominees.
Best Actress
Prediction: Frances McDormand
Alternate: Sally Hawkins
My Vote: Saiorse Ronan
Should Have Been Nominated: Swap out Hawkins in Water for Hawkins in Maudie, first of all. From outside of the nomination pool, I'd go with Kristen Stewart in Personal Shopper
-- Unless voters don't see the point in giving McDormand a second Oscar, the potential for a spoiler is looking unlikely. I think she's fine, but I prefer all four of her competitors and hardly think she would be winning for anything revelatory. By which I mean, she plays the driven indignation thing we've seen her do before well, with enough tonal variety to keep it interesting. Still, though, as skillful as McDormand is, I never felt a complete person amid the rigged scenarios, vague relationships, or precarious sympathies the script sets up for Mildred. She has shining moments, but plenty more missed opportunities to deepen or complicate her character for us. I'd be happier with Ronan, who fully and thoughtfully vivifies Lady Bird's scattered emotions and behavior without distancing her.
Best Actor
Prediction: Gary Oldman
Alternate: Timothée Chalamet
My Vote: Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Pattinson - Good Time
-- So, it's no secret that Chalamet being able to Adrien Brody his way to an Oscar win would completely blow me away, but as with Best Actress, the frontrunner is likely to prevail. Given the biopic mimicry and level of Darkest Hour support, I just don't see anyone spoiling Oldman's chances, tempting as it may be to predict.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Allison Janney
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf
My Vote: Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated: Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
-- I'm most tempted to predict an upset here out of any of the other acting categories for the most deserving nominee, Laurie Metcalf, if for no other reason than the feeling that the Academy will want to reward Lady Bird somewhere. However, I'm not tempted enough to get my hopes up that high. Janney's industry support and scene-stealing momentum will probably tilt the odds in her favor. She's far from my first choice, but who could begrudge Allison Janney winning an Oscar?
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Sam Rockwell
Alternate: Willem Dafoe
My Vote: Dafoe
Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me by Your Name
-- If it weren't for Dafoe, I'd say you could throw this category to the dogs. I'm guessing Rockwell, who's riding a wave of precursor support and has an arc that has oddly garnered a lot of sympathy among viewers, even though it's also been the brunt of criticism towards the movie.
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Get Out
Alternate: Three Billboards
My Vote: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: Beatriz at Dinner
-- The screenplay categories have had for more correlation to the Best Picture winner than the Director category has had over the past few years. Just throwing that out there.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Call Me by Your Name
Alternate: Mudbound
My Vote: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lost City of Z
-- The eventual win Call Me by Your Name will receive in this category would be richly deserved even if the category wasn't already so thin.
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Coco
Alternate: The Breadwinner
-- I see no alternative to anything other than Coco winning. Breadwinner would be a worthy surprise, though unlikely.
Best Documentary Feature
Prediction: Faces Places
Alternate: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Should Have Been Nominated: The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
-- Without a clear-cut frontrunner, this is slightly more difficult to predict. I'm tempted to go with Abacus given the fact that the Academy has ignored his movies all these years. On the other hand, doesn't Faces Places feel very reminiscent of the Searching for Sugarman/20 Feet From Stardom ilk of nominees? Meaning a less serious topic, but much more satisfying viewing experience for voters. Not to reduce it, but I could see Varda and JR following in the footsteps of both of those movies.
Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Loveless
Alternate: A Fantastic Woman or The Square
Should Have Been Nominated: Félicité
-- I've only seen The Square out of the five nominees. Based on reviews, descriptions, and gut feelings, I'm going with Loveless, but could see any of them winning.
Best Cinematography
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Blade Runner 2049
My Vote: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: A Ghost Story
-- Not my list, but a decent lineup, all in all. Dunkirk would be my preference, but hoping Deakins can finally win. Guessing Shape of Water momentum translates most heavily in the tech categories, though.
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Phantom Thread
Alternate: Beauty and the Beast
My Vote: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Atomic Blonde
-- I want to say Phantom Thread wins in a cake walk, but you guys...what if Beauty and the Beast?
Best Film Editing
Prediction: Baby Driver
Alternate: Dunkirk
My Vote: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Lady Bird
-- Typically goes to a Best Picture favorite, but we've seen things like The Matrix and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo succeed for being the most edited movie before. They must've been really impressed.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Prediction: Darkest Hour
Alternate: Victoria & Abdul
Should Have Been Nominated: Atomic Blonde
-- I have yet to see Wonder and don't really care for the makeup in Darkest Hour, which will likely win. Victoria & Abdul would be the closest thing to a preference I have here, which has some good character work.
Best Original Score
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Dunkirk
My Vote: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Wonderstruck
-- Four good-to-strong scores, plus Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Phantom Thread deserves it, if for no other reason than to make up for all the times Greenwood has been ignored, but I think Desplat will repeat his Globe win. How Carter Burwell was nominated for Three Billboards while his Wonderstruck score was right there, I'll never know.
Best Original Song
Prediction: "Remember Me"
Alternate: "This is Me"
My Vote: "Mystery of Love"
Should Have Been Nominated: "Visions of Gideon"
-- I should preface this by saying I've been completely neglectful in my duties of seeing Coco before the ceremony. Therefore, I can't in good conscience say that "Remember Me" would make a good winner. I think it will, but could just as easily see the ghastly "This is Me" winning. Sufjan wasn't even nominated for the right Call Me by Your Name song and he'd still be 10 times the winner than Pasek & Paul.
Best Production Design
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Beauty and the Beast
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: Wonderstruck
-- Seems like an easy get for The Shape of Water at first sight, but all of the nominees seem like potential spoilers. I have the same feeling here that I had in Costume Design with Beauty and the Beast.
Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Baby Driver
Alternate: Dunkirk
My Vote: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Atomic Blonde
-- I have a feeling Dunkirk will be the one I underestimate the most tonight. Still, I think Baby Driver is bound to win at least one of the sound categories.
Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: Dunkirk
Alternate: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: mother!
-- The only win I have predicted for Dunkirk, but this does seem to be the category in which it has the best chance at winning, no?
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Alternate: War for the Planet of the Apes
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: mother!
-- Unless they decide to finally throw Apes a bone as a send-off, then Blade Runner 2049 is likely to win.
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