Best Picture
Prediction: Get Out
Alternate: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: BPM (Beats Per Minute)
-- I'm hearing everyone out on their individual predictions for this category. I buy most of them, even the one involving my personal favorite of the bunch, Lady Bird, taking it. On a gut level, though, I'm probably leaning more towards Get Out benefiting from the preferential ballot. You could make the same argument for The Shape of Water, which similarly has groundswell support, but I'm thinking Picture and Director split again. Which speaking of...
Best Director
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
Alternate: Jordan Peele
My Vote: Greta Gerwig
Should Have Been Nominated: Safdie Brothers - Good Time
-- Whether Shape of Water wins Best Picture or not, I believe that we'll have another year where the amount of tech nominations (and probable wins) will have a fair amount of impact on this particular race. I don't agree that del Toro's work is necessarily a trickier achievement than what Gerwig or Peele pull off, but it's arguably the most directed movie of the bunch (e.g. sets, makeup, setpieces), which will probably give it the edge over the other nominees.
Best Actress
Prediction: Frances McDormand
Alternate: Sally Hawkins
My Vote: Saiorse Ronan
Should Have Been Nominated: Swap out Hawkins in Water for Hawkins in Maudie, first of all. From outside of the nomination pool, I'd go with Kristen Stewart in Personal Shopper
-- Unless voters don't see the point in giving McDormand a second Oscar, the potential for a spoiler is looking unlikely. I think she's fine, but I prefer all four of her competitors and hardly think she would be winning for anything revelatory. By which I mean, she plays the driven indignation thing we've seen her do before well, with enough tonal variety to keep it interesting. Still, though, as skillful as McDormand is, I never felt a complete person amid the rigged scenarios, vague relationships, or precarious sympathies the script sets up for Mildred. She has shining moments, but plenty more missed opportunities to deepen or complicate her character for us. I'd be happier with Ronan, who fully and thoughtfully vivifies Lady Bird's scattered emotions and behavior without distancing her.
Best Actor
Prediction: Gary Oldman
Alternate: Timothée Chalamet
My Vote: Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Pattinson - Good Time
-- So, it's no secret that Chalamet being able to Adrien Brody his way to an Oscar win would completely blow me away, but as with Best Actress, the frontrunner is likely to prevail. Given the biopic mimicry and level of Darkest Hour support, I just don't see anyone spoiling Oldman's chances, tempting as it may be to predict.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Allison Janney
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf
My Vote: Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated: Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
-- I'm most tempted to predict an upset here out of any of the other acting categories for the most deserving nominee, Laurie Metcalf, if for no other reason than the feeling that the Academy will want to reward Lady Bird somewhere. However, I'm not tempted enough to get my hopes up that high. Janney's industry support and scene-stealing momentum will probably tilt the odds in her favor. She's far from my first choice, but who could begrudge Allison Janney winning an Oscar?
