2017 Oscar Predictions

Lady Bird: a treasure given to us by Greta Gerwig

1/20: It's often the case that Best Supporting Actor is either the first or among the first of the awards to be announced on Oscar night, so I thought I might as well begin my predictions there. That and I just saw Call Me by Your Name, which could potentially double-dip in this category, so the topic is fresh in my mind. More to come.

1/21: Updated with Animated, Documentary, and Foreign Language predictions. Probably adding more tonight.

1/21 Update #2: Added both Screenplay categories as well as Makeup and Visual Effects.

1/22: The day before nominations! Actor and Supporting Actress predictions are now here.

1/22 Updated #2: We're done! All predictions for the 21 feature film categories are now available. Now we wait to see how wrong I am tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
5. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Also in the running: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Outside shots: Ray Romano, The Big Sick; Patrick Stewart, Logan; Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

-- Not saying a double-dip for Call Me by Your Name or Three Billboards is an impossibility, especially since there have been hardly any other contenders to gain traction other than Carell or Plummer. My hunch is that the Academy's weird age hang-ups will keep Hammer at bay while Carell coasts on his charm and industry respect. Despite the major controversies surrounding it, I'm not convinced enough people actually like or are enthused by All the Money in the World to clinch any nominations, but I'm willing to eat crow.

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The Boss Baby
5. The Lego Batman Movie

Or maybe: Despicable Me 3; The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales; Ferdinand; Captain Underpants; The Star; In This Corner of the World; My Entire High School Sinking Into Sea

Also eligible: Bird Boy; Cars 3; Emoji Movie; Cinderella the Cat; Ethel & Ernest; Girl Without Hands; The Lego NinjaGo Movie; Mary and the Witch's Flower; Moomins and the Winter Wonderland; Napping Princess; Silent Voice; Smufs: Lost Village; Sword Art Online; Window Horses

-- Shamefully, I haven't seen any of these, but I'm guessing we would've been just fine with three nominees this year?

Best Documentary

1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
4. Last Men in Aleppo
5. One of Us

Or maybe: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail; Icarus; Strong Island; City of Ghosts; LA 92

Remaining finalists: Chasing Coral; Ex Libris; Human Flow; Long Strange Trip; Unrest

-- Like Animated Feature, I haven't seen any of the eligible films for this category, though as you'll see from my last post, I'm anticipating quite a few of them. I'll do a flip if they nominate Wiseman.

A Fantastic Woman could be the
only LGBT-themed Foreign nominee.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. In the Fade
2. The Square
3. A Fantastic Woman
4. Loveless
5. Félicité

Or maybe: On Body and Soul; The Wound; Foxtrot; The Insult

-- Out of all of these, I've only seen The Wound, which could easily clinch a fifth-spot nomination. In the Fade feels like the only lock to me.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lady Bird
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. I, Tonya

Also in the running: Phantom Thread; The Big Sick; The Florida Project; The Post; Dunkirk; Darkest Hour

Unconventional surprises: Beatriz at Dinner; Killing of a Sacred Deer; A Fantastic Woman; Brad's Status

-- An overstuffed category, which is exciting, but frustrating when making predictions. I, Tonya and Phantom Thread are the two remaining Oscar contenders I need to see, so seeing where they fit in the overall race is slightly more difficult. I'm going with a hunch that I, Tonya is going to have a fairly decent showing on Tuesday, while Phantom Thread will only appear in Best Actor. P.T.A. tends to show up in Screenplay, but considering the crowded lineup, I think he'll sit this year out. I could see virtually any of my runners-up making it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Wonderstruck

Also in the running: Lost City of Z; Logan; Last Flag Flying; Victoria & Abdul; Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool; Stronger

-- This category, on the other hand, has gotten thinner and thinner as fewer contenders have failed to catch on. In the fifth spot I'm predicting the film that has arguably lost the most momentum this season. Barely making a whisper during the precursors and receiving even harsher "striking but cold" mentions from critics than Carol did, Wonderstruck is likely to be flat-out ignored on paper, but considering how little competition there is in this category, the unique structure of the script, and the occasional fondness the Academy has for Haynes's films, the writer's branch could push it into a surprise showing here. I also thought of leaving The Disaster Artist off here, but what would replace it?


Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. I, Tonya
2. Bright
3. Victoria & Abdul

Also eligible: Darkest Hour; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Wonder; Ghost in the Shell

-- Likely being incredibly dense for leaving Darkest Hour and Guardians out of my predictions, but I wouldn't put it past this branch. No guts, no glory. Won't be the first time I've screwed these predictions up and it won't be the last.

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Dunkirk
4. The Shape of Water
5. Okja

Also eligible: Blade Runner 2049; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Valerian; Kong: Skull Island; Alien: Covenant

-- Thinking Blade Runner 2049 is this year's film that seems like a sure thing for the tech categories, but only ends up with a couple of them. I hope I'm wrong!

Timothée Chalamet is the year's most deserving
Best Actor contender

Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Also in the running: James Franco, The Disaster Artist; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq.; Tom Hanks, The Post

Outside shots: Robert Pattinson, Good Time; Sam Elliott, The Hero; Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying; Christian Bale, Hostiles; Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky

-- If I'm being honest, I don't like The Disaster Artist's chances on Tuesday. As much as it is a movie about Hollywood, it also zeroes in on a *very* niche subject that could only appeal to a handful of people who are obsessed with The Room. That and how recent the sexual misconduct allegations against Franco are, it could miss altogether.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Also in the running: Hong Chau, Downsizing; Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip; Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Outside Shots: Melissa Leo, Novitiate; Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime; Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour; Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!; Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled; Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying

-- I could see it being any combination of Janney and Metcalf and the rest of the mentioned performances. Spencer seems safest to me, since they like her and will for sure like the movie. Blige and Hunter on the other hand have various factors that could keep them vulnerable (Netflix for the former and a summer release for the latter). Haddish would make me happiest.

Best Original Score

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. The Post
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul

Or maybe: Phantom Thread; Three Billboards; Wonderstruck; Star Wars: The Last Jedi

-- The rare occasion Jonny Greenwood is eligible, yet I can't shake the feeling they'll ignore him anyway? Darkest Hour and Victoria & Abdul seem like safer/more conventional scores that could easily inspire more votes.

Best Original Song

1. Coco, "Remember Me"
2. The Greatest Showman, "This is Me"
3. Call Me by Your Name, "Mystery of Love"
4. Mudbound, "Mighty River"
5. Marshall, "Stand Up for Something"

Or maybe: Call Me by Your Name, "Visions of Gideon"; Beauty & the Beast, "Evermore"; The Star, "The Star"; Battle of the Sexes, "If I Dare"

-- Not confident about any of these other than Coco and Greatest Showman. What a mess this branch is.

Is it really so crazy to think Wonderstruck has a shot in the tech categories?

Best Cinematography

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Wonderstruck

Or maybe: Mudbound; The Post; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; First They Killed My Father; Wonder Wheel; Call Me by Your Name

-- The next three categories highlight even more of my misguided faith in Wonderstruck's ability to gain nominations tomorrow morning. Adapted Screenplay is admittedly a stretch, but the craft categories don't seem that far out of reach. While buzz died quickly upon the film's release, history has shown that low-profile films can pick up at least a surprise single nomination in these categories. So many impressive elements to notice here.

Best Costume Design

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Murder on the Orient Express
5. Wonderstruck

Or maybe: Victoria & Abdul; I, Tonya; The Post; Lady Macbeth; The Shape of Water; Darkest Hour; Wonder Wheel; The Beguiled; Battle of the Sexes

-- Such a stacked category! I could see any number of these making the nomination list. Kind of a shame that Beauty and the Beast's mundane patchwork will get a default nomination here.

Best Production Design

1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Darkest Hour
5. Wonderstruck

Or maybe: Blade Runner 2049; Beauty and the Beast; Wonder Woman; Phantom Thread; Get Out; The Greatest Showman; Murder on the Orient Express; I, Tonya

-- Predicting another surprise miss for Blade Runner as sad as it makes me. Feel like there are no true locks outside of Shape of Water?

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Shape of Water
5. Get Out

Or maybe: The Greatest Showman; Baby Driver; Wonder Woman; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Atomic Blonde; The Post

-- Get Out missing in either of the sound categories is likely to make my blood boil even more than any other omission.

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Wonder Woman
5. Get Out

Or maybe: Baby Driver; The Shape of Water; Atomic Blonde; Spider-Man: Homecoming; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Coco; War for the Planet of the Apes

-- Feels lazy to have the exact same list as Sound Mixing only swapping out the fourth spot, then again that is how it tends to shake out.

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Get Out
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

Or maybe: Molly's Game; The Post; Call Me by Your Name; Lady Bird; Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Phantom Thread

-- I'm predicting a fair amount of love for I, Tonya. Baring in mind that I haven't seen it yet, the general reception seems to indicate it's the kind of movie that will evoke a strong reaction out of voters on either side of the love/hate spectrum. Likely enough to give it the votes it needs.

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Jordan Peele, Get Out
4. Sean Baker, The Florida Project
5. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

On the cusp: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Steven Spielberg, The Post; Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name; Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Also in the running: Dee Rees, Mudbound; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Joe Wright, Darkest Hour; Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game

-- Apologies to Christopher Nolan, who will likely be nominated, but I just keep remembering all the times we think it'll be his year and then the rug is yanked out from under him. As much as I worry I'm being too much of a wishful thinker here, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the Academy will want to embrace a more diverse lineup this year full of new blood.

Best Picture

TFW Three Billboards is suddenly
the frontrunner.

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Florida Project
8. I, Tonya
9. The Post

if there are 10...
10. Darkest Hour

On the cusp: The Big Sick; Phantom Thread; Mudbound; Molly's Game

Also in the running: The Disaster Artist; All the Money in the World; Battle of the Sexes; Blade Runner 2049; Detroit; Downsizing

-- In a field of five I feel fairly certain about the lineup. The rest of the films on the sliding scale are harder for me to pin down. Will Call Me by Your Name be too gay? Will The Florida Project be too indie? And so on. I feel as though I'm at once overestimating and underestimating a good chunk of these.

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saiorse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

On the cusp: Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul; Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game; Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool; Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Also in the running: Diane Kruger, In the Fade; Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman; Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World; Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project; Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

-- Saving the most important category for last. Which also feels like the easiest to predict category this year. I assume Streep is the most vulnerable, but she rarely misses when she has a legitimate shot (see: August: Osage County, Florence Foster Jenkins). I could easily see anyone listed as "on the cusp" as having a decent shot at that fifth slot, though.