2017 Oscar Predictions

Lady Bird: a treasure given to us by Greta Gerwig

1/20: It's often the case that Best Supporting Actor is either the first or among the first of the awards to be announced on Oscar night, so I thought I might as well begin my predictions there. That and I just saw Call Me by Your Name, which could potentially double-dip in this category, so the topic is fresh in my mind. More to come.

1/21: Updated with Animated, Documentary, and Foreign Language predictions. Probably adding more tonight.

1/21 Update #2: Added both Screenplay categories as well as Makeup and Visual Effects.

1/22: The day before nominations! Actor and Supporting Actress predictions are now here.

1/22 Updated #2: We're done! All predictions for the 21 feature film categories are now available. Now we wait to see how wrong I am tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
5. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Also in the running: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Outside shots: Ray Romano, The Big Sick; Patrick Stewart, Logan; Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

-- Not saying a double-dip for Call Me by Your Name or Three Billboards is an impossibility, especially since there have been hardly any other contenders to gain traction other than Carell or Plummer. My hunch is that the Academy's weird age hang-ups will keep Hammer at bay while Carell coasts on his charm and industry respect. Despite the major controversies surrounding it, I'm not convinced enough people actually like or are enthused by All the Money in the World to clinch any nominations, but I'm willing to eat crow.

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The Boss Baby
5. The Lego Batman Movie

Or maybe: Despicable Me 3; The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales; Ferdinand; Captain Underpants; The Star; In This Corner of the World; My Entire High School Sinking Into Sea

Also eligible: Bird Boy; Cars 3; Emoji Movie; Cinderella the Cat; Ethel & Ernest; Girl Without Hands; The Lego NinjaGo Movie; Mary and the Witch's Flower; Moomins and the Winter Wonderland; Napping Princess; Silent Voice; Smufs: Lost Village; Sword Art Online; Window Horses

-- Shamefully, I haven't seen any of these, but I'm guessing we would've been just fine with three nominees this year?

Best Documentary

1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
4. Last Men in Aleppo
5. One of Us

Or maybe: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail; Icarus; Strong Island; City of Ghosts; LA 92

Remaining finalists: Chasing Coral; Ex Libris; Human Flow; Long Strange Trip; Unrest

-- Like Animated Feature, I haven't seen any of the eligible films for this category, though as you'll see from my last post, I'm anticipating quite a few of them. I'll do a flip if they nominate Wiseman.

A Fantastic Woman could be the
only LGBT-themed Foreign nominee.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. In the Fade
2. The Square
3. A Fantastic Woman
4. Loveless
5. Félicité

Or maybe: On Body and Soul; The Wound; Foxtrot; The Insult

-- Out of all of these, I've only seen The Wound, which could easily clinch a fifth-spot nomination. In the Fade feels like the only lock to me.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lady Bird
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. I, Tonya

Also in the running: Phantom Thread; The Big Sick; The Florida Project; The Post; Dunkirk; Darkest Hour

Unconventional surprises: Beatriz at Dinner; Killing of a Sacred Deer; A Fantastic Woman; Brad's Status

-- An overstuffed category, which is exciting, but frustrating when making predictions. I, Tonya and Phantom Thread are the two remaining Oscar contenders I need to see, so seeing where they fit in the overall race is slightly more difficult. I'm going with a hunch that I, Tonya is going to have a fairly decent showing on Tuesday, while Phantom Thread will only appear in Best Actor. P.T.A. tends to show up in Screenplay, but considering the crowded lineup, I think he'll sit this year out. I could see virtually any of my runners-up making it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Wonderstruck

Also in the running: Lost City of Z; Logan; Last Flag Flying; Victoria & Abdul; Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool; Stronger

-- This category, on the other hand, has gotten thinner and thinner as fewer contenders have failed to catch on. In the fifth spot I'm predicting the film that has arguably lost the most momentum this season. Barely making a whisper during the precursors and receiving even harsher "striking but cold" mentions from critics than Carol did, Wonderstruck is likely to be flat-out ignored on paper, but considering how little competition there is in this category, the unique structure of the script, and the occasional fondness the Academy has for Haynes's films, the writer's branch could push it into a surprise showing here. I also thought of leaving The Disaster Artist off here, but what would replace it?

Little Foxes: The New Chapter

New year. New possibilities to explore. I'm cautiously optimistic that I'll post somewhat more frequently, try new hobbies, find new employment, finish school, engage with people more, and experience a more enlightened America that will bring us to a Democratic majority in the house and senate. But first: it's Top 10 season!

I'm nowhere near ready to post mine. A lot of the movies I want to see haven't even opened in Nashville yet. New Year's resolution for distributors: stop waiting until the end of December to release your movies! No one benefits from having too many options to choose from during the busiest season of the year. Statistically speaking it doesn't help your Oscar chances either, since not a single film released in December has won Best Picture since 2004.

But I digress, my main hope is to at least begin posting my Little Fox movie awards for 2017 before Oscar weekend, which would be a considerable improvement on last year's awards. Still, I still have a long list of movies to watch before I can even think about my favorites of the year. So with that, I thought I'd make a list of films that are on my radar in one way or another before publishing my Top 10. In order of anticipation, they are:

• Call Me By Your Name - Anxious to engage with and form an opinion on this one. Primed to obsess over it.
• BPM (Beats Per Minute) - This bizarrely never played in Nashville. Did I dream the raves and Cannes prizes?
• Phantom Thread - Curious to see if this will be admired-but-eh PTA or lovable PTA. That trailer!
• Loveless - Elena and The Return are completely stunning. Much quieter release than Leviathan?
• Ex Libris: The New York Public Library - Adore Wiseman and can't wait to be transported again.
• Happy End - I doubt it'll be my favorite Haneke or anything, but my interest has definitely been piqued.
• Félicité - Local arthouse has let me down so far in terms of a release for this one. Hurry up and get here!
• God's Own Country - Received universal acclaim, and is supposedly super lovely, so of course it never opened here.
• Whose Streets? - Undoubtedly timely and vital in many respects. Ashamed I missed it.
• Graduation - Mungiu gave us 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, so this is easily high on my list.
• A Fantastic Woman - Thrilled to see Vega's success story and for Lelio's Gloria follow-up.
• Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool - Flawless queen Annette Bening and Jamie Bell have the hots for each other. In!
• The Square - I chuckled a lot during that trailer, especially at Moss's reaction. Plus: Palme d'Or completist
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Tried one day, but the projector broke. Delayed seeing it ever since.
• The Woman Who Left - Not sure I'll quite have the time, but Diaz is worth setting aside four hours.
• Heal the Living - Shamefully have never seen a film by Quillévéré. Also stars Tahar Rahim, so yay!
• Last Men in Aleppo - A subject U.S. media has poorly covered. Looks like an utterly sobering feat.
• The Wound - I enjoy having my notions of queer cinema shaken up, so this should be a treat.
• The Greatest Showman - "The new Burlesque," I keep hearing, so that translates to "masterpiece" for me.
• John Wick: Chapter 2 - Honestly, this should probably be higher. So ready for this.
• Staying Vertical - I liked Stranger by the Lake a lot, so I'm definitely curious about this one.
• Human Flow - I'll always go to bat for docs that bind the humanist and the political into one.
• The Breadwinner - Blinked and I missed it when it was in Nashville. Shame since Kells was so impressive.
• The Midwife - The raves for Deneuve is all the reason I need to rent this. No other info necessary.
• Tom of Finland - Certainly could be an odd duck, but I'm inclined to lean towards optimism.
• I Don't Feel at Home in This World Anymore - Netflix title I'm most ashamed of putting off. Lynskey!
• The Post - Spielberg has equipped himself well ever since Lincoln. I'll obviously be there.
• Molly's Game - Not the biggest Sorkin person, but I'd see just about anything with Chastain.
• Coco - I've become a tad restless with Pixar, but all the right people have said its worth giving a go.
• Wonder - Planned on skipping it until I realized Stephen Chbosky made it! Loved Perks.
• Slack Bay - I love Dumont in madcap, Li'l Quinquin mode. This side of him is a total revelation.
• One of Us - The Jesus Camp directors examining a strict Hasidic community in New York.
• Menashe - The minor publicity and the smitten reactions are a good sign if you ask me!
• The Unknown Girl - Heard it was minor Dardennes, but I suppose even that's worth checking out.
• In the Fade - Even if it weren't Akin, I'd be there to see Kruger bring down the house. Gutsy premise.
• Casting JonBenet - Looks as nervy and conceptually/contextually daunting as The Act of Killing.
• Nocturama - Another arthouse title that slipped under my radar but promises rich rewards.
• Dawson City: Frozen Time - Based on what I've seen, I'm not sure I get Morrison, though his images do stun.
• Free in Deed - Festival hit that went totally flew under my nose upon its theatrical release. Strong recommendations
• Lady Macbeth - Stirred lots of interesting reactions, but I've been a tad resistant. Sounds ugly?
• 4 Days in France - A queer travelogue/Grindr exploration is as far up my alley as you can get.
• Faces Places - Every word I hear about this is a joyous rave! Played for such a short time in Nashville.
• Step - Another warmly received documentary I was upset to miss in its theatrical run.
• Landline - I loved Obvious Child so much I don't even care if there's a drop in quality.
• Professor Marston and the Wonder Women - Frank and sexually open-minded from what I hear.
• Brad's Status - Mike White is having a hell of a year, Emoji Movie notwithstanding.
• The Son of Joseph - I'm unfamiliar with Green's filmography. Is this a good place to start?
• Rat Film - Documentary that explores the interconnections between Baltimore's citizens and rats.
• Thelma - Tend to go back and forth on Trier, but the high-concept premise is intriguing.
• Novitiate - Apparently missed out on potent acting and lensing. Avoiding other details.
• Lovesong - Promises rich minimalism and sensitive relationship portrait, so I'm eager for it.
• My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea - From the designer of the comic book in Rabbit Hole!
• It Comes at Night - Wasn't the biggest Krisha fan, but Shultz has a ton of talent.
• Manifesto - You could just say Cate Blanchett and I'll be there.
• The Untamed - Apt title, since Heli was one of the most lacerating experiences I've ever had.
• After the Storm - Like most of Hirokazu's films, could range from cloying to genuinely moving.
• Stronger - I enjoyed Our Brand is Crisis, so I'm even more excited about Green than Jake.
• On the Beach at Night Alone - Difficult to get a read on Hong, but Kim was terrific in The Handmaiden.
• Okja - To be honest, I'm not big on Bong, although his ambitions are always worth exploring.
• First They Killed My Father - Haven't seen any of Jolie's directorial efforts. This one compels me.
• Last Flag Flying - Apparently weak-sauce, but Cicely Tyson is likely worth giving it a shot.
• My Cousin Rachel - Was something of an arthouse hit, yet responses were weirdly tepid.
• Crown Heights - Barely made an impression in theaters, but I'll be there for LaKeith.
• Happy Death Day - Might be crazy, but the trailer indicated a fun, clever, and tense watch.
• An Inconvenient Sequel - Confession: I never saw the Inconvenient Predecessor. Probably should.
• My Happy Family - Thought about ignoring it until Ty Burr's enthusiasm put it on my radar.
• Catfight - Heche and Oh would be enough for me if it didn't already look so funny.
• Wind River - Good reviews, but guessing it waffles between ambitious and dubious politics.
• The Hero - I'll See You in My Dreams was so good, so I worry hearing that this is a lackluster follow-up.
• Ghost in the Shell - I'm not a fan of the original or whitewashing, but this is often described as an ambitious sci-fi.
• Dark Night - Could end up feeling glib and ponderous, but Memphis was very impressive.
• Prevenge - Grisly comedy starring Alice Lowe and her homicidal fetus? Quite a premise.
• A United Kingdom - Asante/Oyelowo are admittedly bigger draws for me than Pike, but still.
• The Wall - American Made soured me a bit on Liman, but the minimalism seems interesting.
• Dave Made a Maze - Could be Community-ish in its quirks, but could just as possibly delight.
• Wonder Wheel - Took a fast and ugly turn from "Blue Jasmine quality" Allen to icky Allen.
• Brigsby Bear - Charmed quite a few people. Plus I've been big on Hamill since he owned Cruz.
• Jane - Wasn't expecting much when it opened, but apparently I was wrong. Best Doc winner?
• Loving Vincent - Doesn't look my cuppa, but the animation does look like it's worth exploring.
• Marjorie Prime - Features a Mica Levi score so that's certainly promising, but I don't know...
• The Dinner - Directed by Oren Moverman, although nothing seems to indicate this is peak material.
• Wilson - Not expecting much other than Laura Dern being her typically fabulous self.
• Colossal - The return of Hathaway! Exciting how smart or misjudged the premise could be.
• The Mountain Between Us - Looks odd, but I'd be remiss to not support Elba as leading man.
• Murder on the Orient Express - Skippable, I'm sure, but frocks and Pfeiffer might do the trick.
• The Bad Batch - Loved A Girl Walks Home Alone... so much. I don't want this to sully it.
• Woodshock - This broke many critics out into hives, but I was digging the trailer. Plus: Dunst!
• Home Again - Sincerely rooting for Hallie ever since The Parent Trap was dedicated to her!
• Marshall - Is this memorable or could I just wait until Black Panther to get my Boseman fix?
• Alien: Covenant - Never saw Prometheus. Many claim this makes me very fortunate.
• Split - Promotional materials and Richardson intrigue me so why have I been so reluctant?
• War for the Planet of the Apes - I enjoy these movies in the moment, but they rarely stick.
• Baby Driver - Edgar Wright isn't always my bag, although even non-converts were charmed.
• I, Tonya - Is this smug, Big Short-ish snark or is it genuinely challenging and thorny?
• The Boss Baby - Some notices were fairly encouraging, but also it looks terrible.
• All the Money in the World - Assumed this was tossed-off Scott, but no I guess?
• The Snowman - Considering the talent involved this had to be a doozy of a misstep.
• Justice League - I think I've successfully avoided this one! Unless I'm forced to watch a blu-ray.

Titles highlighted in red are films I have since seen.