Predictions for the 2016 Oscar Nominations

La La Land is destined for Oscar glory, but how much are we talking?

1/19: Only have Picture and Director so far. More to come throughout the coming days.

1/20: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are now up.

1/21: Costumes, Production Design, Score, and Song predictions are now complete. I might add more tonight, but I have a wedding to go to, so probs not.

1/22: Animated Feature, Documentary, Foreign, Sound, Sound Effects, Makeup, and Visual Effects added to the pile. Might add more tonight after I see 20th Century Women.

Update: Added predictions for both Screenplay categories. Will complete tomorrow. Also 20th Century Women is ten kinds of amazing and deserves multiple nominations. A travesty that Annette Bening isn't locked for a nomination and win.

1/23: And that's a wrap! All categories are complete. Now we wait for tomorrow morning!

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Hell or High Water
6. Arrival
7. Hidden Figures
8. Loving
   and if there are 10...
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Hacksaw Ridge

Also in the running: Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Sully, Silence

The populist vote: Deadpool, Zootopia

Arthouse oddities: 20th Century Women, Toni Erdmann, Elle, Captain Fantastic, Jackie

-- I'm keeping the two least desirable outcomes outside of the top eight, despite both Nocturnal Animals and Hacksaw Ridge having a strong show of support this season. My aversion to those two movies notwithstanding, I have a hunch that Loving has a solid enough fanbase to make it in, assuming it's only down to eight.

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Garth Davis, Lion
5. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Also in the running: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival; Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals; Jeff Nichols, Loving, Denzel Washington, Fences; Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Auteur loyalties: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge; Martin Scorsese, Silence, Clint Eastwood, Suly

If they connect to an audacious vision: Paul Verhoeven, Elle

Fading, but in the conversation: Pablo Larrain, Jackie; Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

-- There's always one contender who's left out after being defaulted as a safe bet, and Villeneuve definitely fits the bill. I could be wrong, but the whole race has been shaping up to feel less stable over the past month.

Supp. Actress: any room for surprises?

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Also in the running: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures; Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Critical darlings (have they been watching their screeners?): Lily Gladstone, Certain Women; Molly Shannon, Other People; Riley Keough, American Honey; Kate Dickie, The Witch

-- The one acting category that feels fairly set in stone for me. Could we see both Monae and Spencer for Hidden Figures?

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Also in the running: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals; Stephen Henderson, Fences; Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Critical darlings: Craig Robinson, Morris from America; Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship; Alden Ehrenreich, Hail, Caesar!

Superb Moonlight options: Trevante Rhodes; André Holland; Ashton Sanders; Alex R. Hibbert

-- I'm sure I'm the first person to admit this, but here goes: Mahershala Ali is fantastic in Moonlight. He's likely going to be the best winner this category has seen Christopher Plummer in Beginners. But he's not the only worthy contender from Moonlight! Ali is likely to be the only representative of the film for this category, but everything about that final segment with Trevante Rhodes and André Holland is mesmerizing. Lucas Hedges seems to be the safer spoiler for that up-in-the-air fifth spot, and certainly has more support than Ben Foster at the moment. Still, my reasoning is that a crowded field + love for Hell or High Water ÷ young actor discrimination = good luck for Foster?

More predictions after the jump...

52 Films by Women: 'Lolo' by Julie Delpy

Entry #3 in 52 Films by Women. See all related posts by clicking here.

Lolo, the latest directorial effort from Julie Delpy, makes good on a lot of the comedic promise of the writer-director-actor's previous works, particularly the savvy culture-clash/relationship study 2 Days in Paris. Which is to say her gifts for conceptual and scene-level discernment often avoid an impulse towards the hackneyed tropes that have become mainstays in the genres she explores, even in the flawed but intriguing stranger-than-fiction account of Elizabeth Báthory's fall from royalty power in The Countess.  Lolo is reliable and entertaining in this regard, sparing none of the characters or relationships from displaying bitterness, anger, or pettiness while emerging as the lightest film to come from Delpy's filmography so far. In other ways, Lolo occasionally suffers from the sense that too little from the writing or scenario is able to conjure a specific idea about the characters or relationships that's worth savoring. I laughed a great deal, especially any scene that involves an exchange between Delpy and Karin Viard, who ingeniously refer to each other as clitoral and vaginal, respectively, but as the push-and-pull between the two loves of Delpy's character (her sweetly gullable boyfriend and her wicked, unambitious son) begins to get more complicated the movie finds itself hitting more broad strokes when it should be getting tighter. One can almost envision a dynamite comedy pilot with 30+ minutes shaved off (with a snappy opening credits sequence to boot!) that could lead to richer rewards with a season's worth of material to expand on the central dynamics, but as it stands Lolo is modestly satisfying and attains an effervescent quality that doesn't betray its dark take on the romantic comedy.

52 Films by Women: 'Things to Come' by Mia Hansen-Løve

Entry #2 in 52 Films by Women. See all related posts by clicking here.

Separation. Aging. Disappointment. Self-liberation. Whether through a dizzying upheaval of cherished (but not overly cherished) memories and connections or an intellectual conversation with oneself that compromise our own ways of living, there are means -- at once familiar and alien -- by which these dilemmas pull us to the physical and emotional spaces of existential longing and deeper scrutinization of our purported freedoms therein. What, if anything, do our convictions and ideologies entail in regards to the choices we make or the forms of adjustment and coping in the face of inescapable adversity. I like to hope I can have an inkling of the wisdom in my own life by the time I'm 30 that Mia Hansen-Løve's movies exude with such unfussy ease and affection. She gives her viewers so much: the organic intricacy of her scripts; the disarming balance of philosophical coolness and radicalism; the economical radiance of energy through editing; the tough, non-pandering questions about the choices we make, the memories we love and the ideals we champion, and the messiness that ensues in our attempts to entangle them. It's here in her latest film Things to Come where Hansen-Løve has the good sense to reject the idea that these questions can be boiled down to any sort of simple resolve, devising a multi-layered prism of ironies and ambiguities to inform character as opposed to mechanical catharsis. Doing near-career-best work, Isabelle Huppert renders the internal conflict of Nathalie with a remarkable specificity of humor, intelligence, and exasperation that undercuts the deliberately opaque intonations of her character. Scenes involving engagements with Nathalie's husband, mother, children, protege, cat, and students exhibit Huppert's unsung gifts for scene-level collaboration with cast members, which is utterly vital for the undercurrents of feeling in her characterization. Her connections to each fulfill Nathalie in different ways while constantly altering her perceptions and ours in equal measure. With Eden focusing on the sprawling group portrait of EDM musicians and Goodbye, First Love operating as a showcase for then-breakthrough actress Lola Creton, Things to Come not only proves Hansen-Løve's adeptness at exploring a variety of different characters and lifestyles with equal insight, but also shines a light on her abilities as an Actor's Director, delivering wholeheartedly as a bracing star vehicle for one of the biggest French screen legends of our time. Anxious to see who she works with next and to explore her earlier works!

52 Films by Women: 'Chevalier' by Athina Rachel Tsangari

Entry #1 in 52 Films by Women. See all related posts by clicking here.

Would that men put half as much effort towards social justice and humanitarian causes than they do their own macho posturing and dick-measuring contests one can imagine the things that could get done. Athina Rachel Tsangari's Chevalier is another mirthful, singular dissection of human behavior to add to the impressive slate of films to come from the Greek New Wave, including her richly unusual previous effort, Attenberg. Stepping away from the curiosities and disassociation of young womanhood that framed her last feature, Tsangari's third film displays the same deadpan-surrealist commitment as she delves into the vulgarities and competitiveness of the male id, and the result is equally clever and insightful in a way that's unique to itself. The ensemble of men work hard to sell the tone and individual interiority/exteriority of the characters, providing comedy and surprising honesty to their insecurities and vanity. If I have one little quibble it's that Tsangari begins to run low on genuine surprises by the time the first hour is up, with the bonds and relationships of the sextet feeling pretty boiled-down by that point when more layers should be revealing themselves. Still, the feel for weirdness and haughty interaction she arranges keeps the experience well-rounded and proves once again that the smartest and most innovative stories about men often come from women.